DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 13

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 13 breakdown!

Let’s dive right in and do the review of week 12’s ownership numbers.

• There are some things to dislike this week.
• I do not like that Tank Dell isn’t sitting at the top where he should have been. I did play more Nico Collins than Dell as a game theory move, but if Dell was the highest owned, then he should have been at the top of the projections.
• A lot of players in the middle there are pretty spot on but….
• Not pictured:
  • Kyren Williams – Projected Ownership of 9.3%. Actual was 17.5%.
  • CJ Stroud – Projected Ownership of 6.4%. Actual was 16.7%.
  • Jerome Ford – Projected Ownership of 4.1. Actual was 15.5%.
• The Kyren Williams miss I can handle because in defense of the model, Kyren wasn’t fully cleared until later in the week, so projections were likely taking that into account and just didn’t have the time to catch up. I could have been better about taking that into account, however. Stroud and Ford, and even Chris Olave, Diontae Johnson, and Jaylen Warren are near criminal misses, especially Olave. I would’ve played so much more of him had I known he’d be lower owned.

This Sunday provides a get right spot so….on to Week 13!

Week 13 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Zach Moss  –  57.3%
2. Tyreek Hill  –  27.5%
3. Atlanta Falcons  –  27.3%
4. Rachaad White  –  23.4%
5. Christian McCaffrey  –  21.4%
6. Michael Pittman  –  19.7%
7. Javonte Williams  –  19.5%
8. David Njoku  –  17.9%
9. Terry McLaurin  –  17.1%
10. Courtland Sutton  –  16.5%
11. Rhamondre Stevenson  –  16.2%
12. Trey McBride  –  16.2%
13. Breece Hall  –  16%
14. Juwan Johnson  –  15.9%
15. Russell Wilson  –  14.7%
16. Jaylen Warren  –  14.1%
17. Demario Douglas  –  13.2%
18. Diontae Johnson  –  13.1%
19. Josh Downs  –  12.9%
20. Jahmyr Gibbs  & Amon-Ra St. Brown  –  12.8%

Notes:

• Outside of a playoff or Thanksgiving slate, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a projection for a single player be higher than Zach Moss’ this week. I’m still deciding what to do with him…play him in every lineup or fade entirely? The game theorist in me is thinking full fade as there will be DFS players who own him a little less, match the field, and play him in every/most lineups. Zack Moss ran all over the Titans for 165 yards and 2 TDs in week 5. Let’s review a few things about that game:
  • Zach Moss was barely owned that day.
  • That was Jonathan Taylor’s return, but he ended up being on a pitch count.
  • Anthony Richardson started but Minshew was forced into action.
  • The matchup did not favor a running game, and it still doesn’t. The Titans have one of the better run defenses in the league. I’m currently leaning toward lightning not striking twice and fully fading Moss.
• I don’t play chalky defenses so the Falcons are out for me.
  • That being said, Breece Hall is coming in too high for me against a team that has been top 10 against RBs over the last 4 weeks.

Game Stacks

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders

The Dolphins should be fine in this matchup. Receiving leader Tyreek Hill faces a Washington secondary that is yielding the most receiving yards to WRs. However, with Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer receiving their walking papers, HC Ron Rivera is about to take over play calling duties on the defensive side of the ball. Whatever defense the Commanders roll out on Sunday, there will be no film for, so it’s nigh impossible for the Dolphins to be fully prepared for what they are about to face. I don’t expect the Dolphins to struggle, but I do think they’ll take their time as they figure out what the opposing defense is trying to do. I have no doubt that Mike McDaniel and company will do just that, but does that mean a ceiling game for someone like Tyreek Hill who is $9600 and could be owned by over a quarter of the field? Jaylen Waddle is a nice pivot should the TDs go through him on Sunday.

The Dolphins may not get that luxury of playing slow, especially if something strange happens like turn they the football over early in the game. The Commanders are playing football at the 3rd highest pace in the NFL. The Miami defensive line likes to pressure the QB like Dallas does, and the Commanders have given up the 2nd most sacks in the league, so some quick passes to slot WR Curtis Samuel and TE Logan Thomas could be in play like they were last week. CB Jalen Ramsay is still one of the best in football, so outside WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson could have limited ceilings.  In any event, the Commanders will be throwing in this game as the Dolphins have the best team in football against the RB position over the last month.

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans

I list this game mostly because there should be DFS relevant players here, but I’m not sure the chances for a full on shootout are in the cards.

CB Pat Surtain is pretty solid, but Fabian Moreau and Damarri Mathis are not. Moreau has replaced Mathis because Mathis is Pro Football Focus’ 120th ranked CB…..out of 120. One of Dell, Brown, or Colins is likely in for yet another good day, but the Broncos have been better against WRs of late. They’re particular weakness has been against TEs, but Dalton Schultz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring problem.

Denver is giving up the most PPR points per game to RBs this season. Devin Singletary, while losing snaps to Dameon Pierce, is still the lead back for Texans and is not going to be owned on Sunday.

Yet again, the perception that the Texans are awful against the run is rearing it’s ugly head. Yes, I am a Javonte Williams believer, but I’m not expecting a GPP winning performance here considering both the ownership and the fact that Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin just won’t go away.

Courtland Sutton catches a TD week, and the Texans are giving up 30 fantasy points per game to the WR position over the last 4 games.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

I’m liking this matchup a lot as out of the 4 of these game stacks, the ownership is likely lower here due to it being the lowest total at 45.5.

Over the last 4 weeks, the Lions have been the 2nd worst team against QBs. They’ve also been the worst team against WRs. The Saints are also top 3 in plays per game over the last month. Beyond the other football games this Sunday, part of what’s keeping the Saints ownership low is the multitude of injuries at the their WR position. Chris Olave is likely to play, but Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed will probably miss. A.T. Perry might come through after a disappointing week 12, and something named Lynn Bowden is being bandied about in fantasy circles. Juwan Johnson’s is also getting ownership. However, yet again, Taysom Hill is being ignored.

It’s a tough matchup for Alvin Kamara. That being said, he should have high involvement in the offense. I like him in a PPR setting more than a non one. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jamaal Williams vultures a TD from Kamara and/or Taysom this week. #RevengeGame.

Over the last month the Saints are yielding the 7th most fantasy points to WRs. Amon-Ra is one of the focal points of the Detroit offense, I like him at lower ownership than normal.

This isn’t a matchup to shy away from the Lions ground game. New Orleans is both 11th against the run in the last month and on the season. David Montgomery is coming in lower owned as he is dealing with a foot injury and the perception that Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been getting more snaps, is now the lead back. That may not be true in goal to go situations.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

If I were Brock Purdy, I’d be highly motivated to do well in this matchup after last year’s unfortunate playoff loss. The 49ers get a Philadelphia secondary that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs and the most points to QBs over the last 4 weeks. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are going up againts CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay who are bleeding fantasy points. Deebo is coming in with slightly higher ownership, but I’m not sure how true that will lend itself to be as pretty much everywhere I look Aiyuk is being recommended.

Over the last month, the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NFL to the QB position, the 2nd fewest to RBs, the 8th fewest to WRs, and the 8th fewest to TEs. Add in their pass rush, and this is going to be a challenge for Philadelphia. AJ Brown (6% ownership) is too low owned for someone who can break a slate. Outside of CB Chavarius Ward, the 49ers don’t have “studs” in their secondary, but they have capable players who are clearly benefitting from the firepower San Francisco has on its defensive line and at linebacker. The ownership related to Brown, DeVonta Smith (3%), and D’Andre Swift (2%) is the public realizing the task in front of Philly is quite difficult. Philly has overcome pretty much every other challenge they have faced this year, so I’d argue it would be foolhardy to discount them.

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

• Bryce Young. I mention him here not necessarily because I believe that playing him will lead you to a GPP win this week, but rather to suggest that perhaps the problem with Young was HC Frank Reich, who has been relieved of his duties. Prior to this season, Reich did not have much experience working with rookie QBs, so I am not personally ready to write Bryce Young off as a bust. I wouldn’t be surprised he if he improves in a matchup against a subpar pass defense.
• Bijan Robinson. The Falcons are finally integrating Bijan into the offense in the manner that the should be, at least for now that is. The Jets are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the RB position over the last month, and they are 2nd to only Denver in rushing yards allowed on the season.
• Keenan Allen has a 33% target share and the Patriots secondary has not been good. JC Jackson’s best years seem to be behind him. I also have Keenan at 11.6% ownership, which makes him a decent pivot off the chalkier Tyreek Hill. Just make sure Allen plays, he’s missed practice this week with a quadriceps issue.
• As stated, the Colts draw a solid run defense. Josh Downs went for 6 grabs and 97 yards against this secondary in week 5.  He makes for a solid play as a pivot to both Moss and Pittman, though this is a good matchup for Pittman as well.
• Over the last month, the Browns are allowing 18.5 fantasy points per game to the RB position. Kyren Williams stepped right back into a lead RB role last week.

Where am I Going?

• Oh when the Saints go marching in….
• Lots of Keenan Allen and Josh Downs.
• Monty and the Sun God.
• Singletary seems sneaky this week.
• I’m not ignoring the Eagles.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.