Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and thanks for stopping by today’s chat. It’s a snow day here in Brooklyn, with about 8″ of total snowfall in the city but a lot of it already melting. I’m fresh off having built our first backyard snowman with my daughter.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: About an hour ago, my piece on Jurickson Profar’s return to San Diego went live (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jurickson-profar-rejoins-the-padres-not-so…). If you’re reading this, you have a pretty good chance of getting playing time in the Padres’ outfield this season because there’s not a lot of experienced competition.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, it’s been a few weeks since I did one of these, so on with the show…

Not a huge fan: Hi Jay, I’m generally not a huge fan of your stuff, but just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to chat!

Jay Jaffe: Gosh, thanks for that. I’m generally not a huge fan of people who take the time to say that they’re not huge fans of me (or any of my colleagues), so, uh, have a nice day I guess.

Sanford: How would you rate your snow shoveling skills on a 20-80 scale?

Jay Jaffe: oh, i’m probably fringe-average at this point, maybe a 45. My right shoulder has never been the same since my 2003 labrum tear, and thanks to an ongoing battle with impingement it might be weaker than the left. I can still manage ok as long as there’s ibuprofen close at hand.

Richard: Brian Kenny on MLB Network recently named Vern Stephens the #1 most overlooked shortstop by the HOF. Do you agree and does he have any chance of election in the foreseeable future?

Jay Jaffe: Stephens was an eight-time All-Star who hit 286/.355/.460 (119 OPS+) for his career, which ran from 1941-55. He had good thump for a shortstop, slugging 247 career homers, and he was about average defensively. He’s just 32nd in JAWS, though (46.3/34.4/40.3), and I can think of a few shortstops I’d rather see in the Hall.10th-ranked Bill Dahlen is my top pick, and 20th-ranked Bert Campaneris (53.1/36.7/44.9) was a key player during the A’s 1970s dynasty. Even Nomar Garciaparra (44.3/43.1/43.7, 24th) has a stronger case.

I can see Stephens maybe getting on the Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot at some point, but it will be as ballast while the attention will be paid to stronger candidates.

Richard: Besides Dick Allen, what names do you expect (not necessarily hope) to see on the Classic Era ballot this fall? I’m particularly curious about Curt Flood and Buzzie Bavasi.

Jay Jaffe: It would certainly be interesting to see Flood on the ballot. He never got the time of day when put before the ignorati on the expanded Veterans Committee ballots (14 out of 82 votes in one of those years and similarly in others), probably because they were thinking more about the limitation of his statistics than the righteousness of his sacrifice in his challenge of the reserve clause. Bavasi would be a good candidate, Dahlen too (though he hasn’t fared well in the past and might be rotated out). My real interest is in seeing more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players, managers, and execs recognized. Vic Harris, John Beckwith, and John Donaldson come to mind.

Tyler: Hi Jay, I asked Dan Szymborski this question a couple months back and he said he wasn’t completely sure how to answer it. I’ve done a lot of reading/studying up on analytics for probably 10-12 years now and I think I have a decent grasp on what the numbers mean, but I couldn’t tell someone WHY they mean what they mean. In other words, I don’t understand the math that goes into the numbers. So this is my question, how important is it to be able to explain the nuts and bolts of the math that goes into analytics? I’ve wanted to start a baseball blog and/or podcast for a while, but I’m really hesitant because of my lack of understanding in this area. In your view, is having this understanding a pre-requisite to be able to cite them in a blog or podcast? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: If you look hard enough within the FanGraphs glossary, the guts of Baseball Reference, or even MLB.com for Statcast, you can find a lot of the math, but for the most part the real importance is in understanding the concepts and the why, rather than in re-creating the numbers yourself. If you’re interested enough, though, you can reach out to people who do know how the math works and they can point you in the right direction.

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: I had leftovers of this stovetop mac and cheese with sausage (chicken, this time) and kale. https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1023269-cheesy-stovetop-mac-with-s…

This recipe has quickly become a favorite in our household, as it’s a one-pot that has vegetables within it as well, and they’re inobtrusive enough. This is particularly great with a few dashes of hot sauce (I used Cholula but others will work fine).

Eddie rosario: Where do I sign?

Jay Jaffe: The Padres have lots of playing time available and rank last on our depth charts in LF (Profar et al). The Marlins are 29th there, and you could fit into a platoon with Bryan De La Cruz

Jacksonian Question: Who is the MVJ (Most Valuable Jackson) by the end of the year? Chourio, Merrill, Holliday, or Jobe?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Jackson Holliday, whom I think will get the most playing time of the bunch.

Interestingly, the Padres are going to take a look at Merrill in the outfield; he played 5 games in LF at El Paso last year, and he’s not  a real threat to supplant Machado, Bogaerts, or Kim with his defense.

Reds?: The Reds rebuild hasn’t worked as planned. Time to call it a day and start a new rebuild?

Jay Jaffe: What? The Reds are bursting at the seams with young talent. I’m not saying I have the confidence in them to pull it off, but they’re not in a position to give up right now.

Bill on da Shore: I’ll get right to it. Jackson Holliday – does he start the year with Baltimore or AAA Norfolk?

Jay Jaffe: Neither Rutschman nor Henderson started the year with the big club, and Holliday has just 19 games at Triple-A, so I’m going to guess that he begins the season in Norfolk.

Guest: Do you think Masataka Yoshida develops this offseason with the Red Sox training staff and becomes a more elite defender/hitter in Fenway, or can we expect similar outcomes to this season for him? Does he play anywhere besides LF consistently?

Jay Jaffe: I’n not tremendously optimistic given that his exit velo, barrel and hard-hit rates were all below average, and he produced only a .419 xSLG. Sounds like he’s going to get the bulk of the playing time at DH. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/02/alex-cora-envisions-masataka-y…

Ben: Thinking about future HoF ballots, why is it that Jason Kendall received only 2 votes while Yadier is expected to easily make it in (despite Kendall edging Yadier in JAWs)?

Jay Jaffe: Kendall finished his career with a 95 OPS+, zero Gold Gloves, and framing stats that were pretty lousy. Not a big mystery.

If you’re using JAWS to measure catchers who have framing data, you’re not getting anywhere close to a true picture.

Chris: What percent do you think Felix hernandez will get? Will he get the Johan Santana bump of people regretting letting him fall off the ballot?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll break double digits and stick around the ballot, less because of post-Santana regret than because guys like Buehrle and Pettitte, who didn’t have his peak, have done so.

Remember, a significant contributor to Santana falling off the ballot was because it was so crowded that it was very difficult to make the case he was one of the top 10 candidates. It’s not as crowded for Félix, though it is crowded and people are more aware of the shortage of starting pitcher candidates these days.

Waino: How will I do when I debut on the ballot in 2029? Do I break 5%? Pettitte/Buehrle purgatory? Any chance of induction?

Jay Jaffe: Probably Pettitte/Buehrle territory, and I think that’s about where you belong.

Guest: Hi Jay – do you think the Yankees have another move to make? Would a pillow contract for one of the top FAs still out there make sense at all? I know they’re up against it with the luxury tax and all…

Jay Jaffe: Matt Chapman would certainly make some sense given the LeMahieu/Peraza plan at third base, but given that they’re already on the fourth tier, luxury tax-wise, I would be very skeptical they make any kind of impact move.

Guest: What will it take for you to pick the Reds as NL Central favorites coming out of ST?

Jay Jaffe: the NL Central looks pretty tight; we have the Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds projected within four wins of each other (80-84). I expect the Cubs will improve their odds by signing Bellinger sooner or later, but a couple of injuries here and there might make the Reds look like an appealing pick.

Padres Fan: The Padres will need to rely on Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee and Graham Pauley to some degree for left handed production this season. Who do you feel has the best chance to succeed this season out of the group?

Jay Jaffe: Merrill, who has by far the highest upside of the three

Guest: I spent the winter of 2022 obsessing about the details of the CBA and engaging in righteous anger over the plight of players and minor leaguers. Now that we’re two years in, how are you feeling about the new mechanisms that the players bargained for? are teams changing their spendings? are young players getting more money?

Jay Jaffe: While the CBT thresholds are probably curbing spending to some degree, I think for the most part the mechanisms designed to help young players get more money are working. We’re seeing some top prospects break camp in the majors and their teams benefiting as well. The Mariners (Julio), Dbacks (Carroll), and Orioles (Gunnar) earned their teams comp picks via the Prospect Promotion Initiative, and players have earned decent chunks of money via the pre-arb bonus pools.

Guest: Hi Jay! In France with my wife, pressing matter at hand.

Pick between these three Dynasty options if you’d be so kind:

Ben Rice
Wilyer Abreu
George Lombard Jr.

Big fan of your work, thx!

Jay Jaffe: Alas I’m ill-equipped to advise you on Dynasty options — in general, i’m not the guy to ask about any fantasy stuff — but do enjoy France!

Generally a huge fan: Do you envision a scenario where you would cast a vote for Felix Hernandez? What does that scenario look like – is it a question of deserving to be a HoFer in your eye? a vote similar to your vote for Pettitte? or voting to keep him around on the ballot for future discussion/trends/etc. (Thank you for taking the time to chat)

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t really started to think too hard about next year’s ballot but I can say that all else being equal I’d vote for Félix ahead of Pettitte if I had only one slot open.

Tomas: Thanks for taking the time to chat with us, Jay. Quick question: how would you rank you, your daughter and the snowman in terms of being a competent outfielder for the Padres in 2024?

Jay Jaffe: I worked my ass off on the elliptical machine before heading to Chamonix to ski with my father, and while I’m not in the best shape of my life at 54, I skied 104,000 vertical feet over six days and am in better shape than I’ve been in 20 years. My daughter is probably pretty playable if you don’t mind her sitting down and asking about whether she can have a snack in the middle of the inning. The snowman… already is melting a bit so I’m not wild about his long-term chances

A Huge Fan: Hi Jay, I am generally huge fan of your stuff and also want to say thanks for taking the time to chat! Is Josh Sborz the most unlikely World Series-clinching pitcher in history?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. that’s a very interesting and fun question. Offhand Sborz seems to be a pretty unlikely choice but let’s see what happens when I throw this into Stathead

Jay Jaffe: ok here’s the list https://stathead.com/tiny/dFxq7

Jay Jaffe: eyeballing it, for the most part those are high-quality relievers and the occasional double-duty pulling starter closing out clinchers. 1961 Bud Daley for the Yankees seems pretty random as he was a below-average starter, but even his 90 ERA+ for the season was better than Sborz’s 81.

Snaks: What is your go-to snack to have while playing baseball? How about in the dugout?

Jay Jaffe: well, i don’t really get to play anymore but my go-to snack during skiing, and one of my daughter’s for playing, is the dark chocolate Kind bars.

nate: who is better morton or sale

Jay Jaffe: Two guys who both closed out recent World Series, back-to-back even (2017 and 2018). Sale’s the one with the stronger career but Morton threw more innings last year than Sale has in the last four, and was very good doing so. I’d take him over Sale right now.

Kenley Jansen: Why are the Red Sox trying to trade me? And why don’t the Dodgers want me back? Let Evan Phillips play the fireman role and I can rack up saves as the “closer” without stepping on anyone’s toes or messing up the high leverage roles in the rest of the pen, right? I won’t even cost that much since I’m a salary dump! LOVE ME, FRIEDMAN!!!!

Jay Jaffe: The Red Sox are going cheap again, eh? I think the goal for any team acquiring you would be to make Boston eat as much of that $16 million as possible. That will only happen once Boston resigns itself to doing so, but I don’t see a likely fit with the Dodgers, who are already above the fourth tier CBT threshold.

All good: Do you put the cream/milk or the coffee in your cup first? Do you stir? Which direction? How about cereal, milk or cereal first?

Jay Jaffe: Milk goes in after the coffee and, uh, I think I tend to stir clockwise. I don’t eat cereal these days.

Plus shoveler: Greetings from Buffalo – lower back pain has limited my shoveling skills, but I’m still a solid 60+. Snow sucks, but enjoy snowman building with the kiddo, that’s how we stay sane up here in the Great White North.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, my lower back is a risk when it comes to moving Buffalo-level snow. My days of doing that are over.

Knock on wood, our neighbors have been very neighborly when it comes to shoveling the sidewalks when it’s snowed here since we moved. In turn, we’ve made sure to check to see if anywhere on our half of the block needs salting later in the day.

Rational Reds Fans: What do you do with Jonathan India if you’re the Cincinnati Reds?

Jay Jaffe: I think eventually they trade him for pitching help, but not immediately. With so many youngsters in the lineup, it’s quite possible that one might struggle and need to be sent down, in which case it’s nice to have India around for the purposes of flexibility.

Richie Allen and the Ebonistics: Do you think Mr. Allen has a good shot on the ballot this fall?

Jay Jaffe: I dearly hope he makes it — I think he’s the most qualified non-Negro Leagues candidate out there, but I’m not going to go so far as to be optimistic that the stars will align this time after so much heartbreak.

Mike: Currently reading Lords of the Realm by John Helyar. Do you think any owner or GM who took part in the collusion from 86-87 should have been outlawed from the Hall? Bud Selig certainly comes to mind

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know about outlawed (banned) but I sure as hell wouldn’t have voted for him because of his role in collusion

Bobby: Do you subscribe to the idea that the top 20 players of each position in JAWS should be hall of famers? If you do, can you get on board with the Dustin Pedroia case, and if not why?

Jay Jaffe: top 20 is a bit of a stretch. Top 10 for sure, top 15 mostly. Pedroia is a bit too far on the fringe for my tastes but I can understand why he would have his proponents.

Jack: Where do you predict Snell/Montgomery to end up?

Jay Jaffe: Angels for Snell, Rangers for Montgomery

Butts, Esquire: Jorge Soler at 3/42 – overpay, pay, underpay?

Jay Jaffe: To these eyes a bit of an overpay but not egregious. He was good enough last year to justify the deal, but 2020-22 produced a net of 0.7 WAR, which, yikes. So there’s risk.

Justin: Hi Jay! Thanks so much for all your HOF analysis work this year. It was a lot of fun, as always, to follow along. Do you anticipate any new contributions to your S-JAWS series in the next month? I was recently re-reading some of those pieces from last year and they are great. Seems like you’ve been hinting recently at more ideas in that sphere.

Jay Jaffe: I’m going to be writing about starting pitchers and the Hall in the near future, hopefully. Not necessarily as part of the S-JAWS series immediately but I do want to pick up where i left off at some point.

Austin D.: Is there a case to be made for Gene Tenace as a hall-of-famer? Traditional stats would probably dissuade old-school voters, but his WRC+ puts him as one of the best offensive catchers ever, and he has 40+ JAWS on top of that. Not to mention arguably one of the best World Series performances of all time.

Jay Jaffe: I think his case is too esoteric — and his batting average too low — to get past the gatekeepers who make the ballots. As I wrote in The Cooperstown Casebook, a unicorn will be made commissioner of baseball before he’s elected to the Hall of Fame.

Phil: Yamamoto’s projections on Steamer and Zips are less “ace” and more “solid #2/awesome #3”. Dodgers clearly paid ace money, so is there anything you think the projection systems are missing?

Jay Jaffe: I think you have to remember that projection systems tend to have their reservations about EVERYBODY. Nobody is going to project to look dominant right out of the gate, especially without any MLB experience under their belts. We have Yamamoto with a Depth Charts projection of 3.8 WAR where the top pitchers are at 5.0. Yet that projection is equal to that of Corbin Burnes and 0.1 ahead of Gerrit Cole. He’s going to be fine.

Daniel: What sort of season do you think we’re about to see from Tatis? How likely is it he returns to his 2021 batting form?

Jay Jaffe: I’m optimistic for a rebound. His problems seem to be at least partly mechanical and therefore more solvable. Esteban Rivera had a good breakdown recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-needs-to-get-his-legs-ba…)

Alby: Does Luis Tiant have any shot at the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: I’d call it a long shot. He hasn’t fared well on Era Committee ballots but he remains very popular among fans, and that may mean another look sooner or later.

benjamin: tremendous hater energy by that first guy lol. do you think a strong final 5y with the twins puts correa into at least HOF convo?

Jay Jaffe: Correa’s early start and success will keep him in play for the Hall of Fame for awhile but he’s got to get back on track after a pretty disappointing 2023.

Mr. Burrito: Andruw Jones had one of the better age 20-something careers, and slipped (ate his way?) into an abyss shortly after turning 30. Jones’ 20s were so strong, in fact, that I kinda/sorta believe he should be in the Hall, even though I’d argue he defrauded my beloved Dodgers… My question: Who, in your view, had the best age 30-something and age 40-something careers? (For the oldsters I’d argue Darrell Evans and Davey Lopes were weirdly great after age 40, but I’m sure you can think of others.) Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Most of the all-time greats were great after 30 as well as before. A look at the leaderboard for WAR from 30 onward is pretty much the usual suspects: Bonds, Wagner, Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Cobb. Adrián Beltré is only 19th on the list with 52.2 WAR (0.2 less than Jackie Robinson) but strikes me as a guy who really elevated himself into the pantheon from 30 onward. Edgar Martinez, just a couple spots below, is in that group as well. https://stathead.com/tiny/qtp1W

Guest: Hi Jay- can you give an approximation of how Witt’s career arc would have to go for his option to be picked up? I’m struggling to think of a scenario where he does well enough for the team to want the short-term extension that the option offers, but poorly enough where he wouldn’t opt out in any of the 4 years beforehand.

Jay Jaffe: This is a good question for Ben Clemens, who does a great job of modeling these thread-the-needle scenarios

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, while there are still a ton of good questions in the queue, it’s time for me to head off. Thanks so much for stopping by today. Hopefully I’ll get back into a regular rhythm with these and we’ll be back at it next week.