In the few weeks following the conclusion of the World Series, with no meaningful major league games on the calendar until March, our collective attention shifts quickly to hot stove season. But as eager as we are to start slotting free agents into new rotations, bullpens, and lineups, there’s a bit of paperwork to take care of before the full extent of the winter’s class is even known. Teams have exclusive five-day windows with their departing clients, players and teams decide to opt in or out of optional contract years, and qualifying offers are issued and routinely rejected.

This past Friday was one of the final deadlines of MLB’s early offseason, by which teams had to choose whether or not to tender contracts to players on their 40-man roster with fewer than six years of service time. Those tendered contracts will remain under team control in 2024, but those whom teams declined to offer contracts were added to the free-agent pool and will look for work elsewhere. By the end of the day, a majority of teams had at least one extra empty 40-man spot, and dozens of players — headlined by two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff — were newly available.

Woodruff, who is recovering from a shoulder surgery and will miss most of the upcoming season, is certainly the standout arm in this year’s cohort of non-tenders, but he’s not exactly the prototypical non-tender. In this year’s crop, there are a number of interesting low-profile arms who are looking to re-establish themselves as bullpen contributors with another big league opportunity after injuries or stretches of underperformance. Let’s take a look at a handful of guys who will be hoping to find good fits as low-risk potential contributors over the next few months.

Jovani Moran, LHP

Over 79 appearances across three seasons in the majors, the issue with the 26-year-old Moran is clear: How much would you be willing to stomach the walks? Everything else about him looks like a winner; over his career, he has a 29.0% strikeout rate, .194 xBA, .288 xSLG, .277 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, and an average exit velocity of 85.7 mph. But those walks are killer. He put up an 11.0% rate in his impressive 2022 mini-breakout; with the benefit of a big league scouting report, hitters took an even more patient approach last season, and it got worse, shooting up to 14.7%. Less luck on balls in play and more runners left on meant his run prevention stats also took a big hit, as he went from a 2.21 ERA, 1.78 FIP, and 2.88 xFIP in 2022 to a 5.31 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 4.46 xFIP in ’23. The Twins, apparently, had seen enough.

But the stuff is so tempting. Moran throws a four-seamer and a devastating changeup at about the same rate, mixing in a slider to same-handed hitters nearly 20% of the time. Even as he scuffled last season, his average exit velocity of 86.2 mph, hard-hit rate of 27.5%, and whiff rate of 37.0% were near the top of the league, albeit in just 42.1 innings. If he can get his walk rate closer to 10% than 15%, he could be a tantalizing addition to any bullpen.

Adam Cimber, RHP

The side-arming Cimber went through the wringer with the Blue Jays in 2023. He didn’t make it through April before being placed on the injured list with a rhomboid strain in his throwing arm, rehabbed his way back in May, and was sidelined again in June with an impingement in that same shoulder. He’d go nearly three months without seeing any action before getting into four games at Triple-A Buffalo in September.

Cimber was effective in 2021 and ’22 in Miami and Toronto, and his success derived from two skills: keeping runners off the bases and missing barrels. He went right at hitters in the zone at above-average rates, and despite low velocity, his pitches were tough enough to hit to make that strategy work. Not only did he finish in the 88th percentile in walk rate in 2021 and 94th in ’22, but he was also fooling hitters well enough that he had a positive run value on swings at strikes as well. With his funky delivery, he was getting just-bad-enough contact, with most hard-hit contact going for hard groundouts or flyouts. These skills weren’t gone in a small sample in 2023; his 7.4% walk rate and 6.9% barrel rate are above his career averages, but not too far a cry.

A slow-throwing 33-year-old coming off a shoulder injury may not be at the top of your wish list. But if the shoulder is healthy enough — a big if, surely — he could have a shot at becoming a reliable option from the right side again, and given his unfortunate 2023, he should be available at quite a modest cost. For a team willing to give him a scrutinizing physical, that’s a gamble that could pay off.

Trevor Gott, RHP

Gott is another right-handed reliever on the wrong side of 30, and he’s ended up on the non-tender list for the second straight year after the Mets declined to offer him a deal for 2024. It feels like he’s been around forever, but the Gott we see now is quite different from the pitcher who was sent down to spend the entire 2021 season in Triple-A. He came back in 2022 with a completely different approach to his pitch mix, favoring a new cutter and reviving a sinker that had faded from his arsenal.

When he’s been on the mound since 2021 (he’s dealt with a handful of minor injuries in the last two years), it’s felt like he’s that close to figuring it all out. In 2022, he had a 2.94 xERA based on a healthy Statcast batted ball profile, but posted a 4.14 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and 3.82 xFIP (eight homers in 45.2 innings didn’t help). In 2023, he ranked in the 82nd percentile with a 3.40 xERA, thanks in part to a 92nd-percentile barrel rate of 4.5%, but once again, the run prevention metrics told different stories, as he finished with a 4.19 ERA, 3.20 FIP, and 4.16 xFIP. Since the start of 2022, he has a .278 xwOBA — 52nd out of 370 pitchers who have thrown at least 1,500 pitches — but a .301 wOBA that ranks 152nd.

All that said, he’s been on five different teams since 2018 and hasn’t managed to stick yet, and he has lost some of the fastball velocity that carried his early years. As is the case with Cimber, a team can’t be blamed for passing on Gott, but some team may stand to benefit from giving him a shot.

Brett Martin, LHP

What’s working against Martin is that he missed all of 2023 after shoulder surgery performed in January. That’s no small hurdle to clear in free agency; obviously the Rangers found it reason enough to non-tender him. But the fact is, when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective.

He’s never been a strikeout guy, fanning just 18.6% of opposing hitters over his career, but an elite chase rate has helped him induce weak contact on the ground and limit damage in the air. In 2022, hitters swung at 38.3% of pitches in the chase zone, whiffed on 53.1% of those, and posted a .166 wOBA in that zone overall. That year, he went in heavy on the sinker and curveball from a usage standpoint, a choice he might consider dialing back, as his slider and four-seamer ended up his most effective pitches on a per-use run value basis.

For Martin, the lost year may mean taking a minimum or minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but he’ll still be 28 on Opening Day in 2024. As long as he’s physically capable, he’s shown that his pitch mix can be effective in a big-league bullpen, and someone can always use a big lefty.

Codi Heuer, RHP | Brandon Hughes, LHP

While we’re on the subject of lost seasons, why not a one-two punch of 27-year-old former Cubs prospects with recent injury frustrations? The tough news is that it seems that neither Heuer nor Hughes are sure things for spring training; the former is recovering from an elbow fracture suffered during Tommy John rehab in June, the latter is recovering from surgery on his knee that same month. Heuer hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2021 but was strong over two seasons with both Chicago clubs, boasting a high-90s fastball with a dropping changeup and a tight slider, a combination that yielded both high swing-and-miss rates and soft contact. His fastball was his hallmark, so he’ll have to convince potential employers that he still has some of that overpowering velocity.

Hughes struggled in 17 outings this season before the knee injury was revealed. But in 2022, he showed a strong ability to get swings and misses at the highest level with a 33.1% whiff rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate. He struggled with walks and home runs, and a fly-ball reliever who isn’t able to limit hard contact effectively is a risky prospect. But a young lefty who has shown he can strike out big league hitters will more than likely continue to get chances as bullpens look for help.

Ultimately, teams looking to restock their bullpens will have plenty of options, and most of these pitchers will have to be patient to see who still needs help when the top of the market settles. But relief pitching is always in high demand, and if you want to find the hidden gems, it can pay dividends to take chances on players looking for a chance to prove they are both healthy and capable of handling big league innings. When all is said and done, free agency is not just about what decisions teams make with the Woodruffs of the world, but also with the Cimbers and Morans and Heuers.

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