Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
If you read the 2,300-word NCAA Tournament preview from yesterday, you probably noticed that it only included eight regionals and 32 teams, which is only half the field. That’d leave newcomers woefully unprepared for the bacchanal of college baseball that is to come. So join me for a quick look at the other 32 teams that will set out to claim a spot in the Men’s College World Series. Remember: The goal is 150 words per region. Let’s see if I can do it this time.
Lexington Regional
1. Kentucky
2. Indiana State
3. Illinois
4. Western Michigan
Kentucky, the no. 2 overall seed, gets to host this de facto Midwestern regional, featuring the regular season Big Ten and MVC champions, and MAC tournament winners Western Michigan. Midwestern teams often have a hard time getting out of the regional round because they’re seeded against this implacable wall of northern SEC teams — Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee — that may or may not be playing well at the moment, but usually win on account of having 10 future big leaguers on the roster. The Wildcats don’t have a 20-homer hitter or a starter with an ERA under 4.00, but they went 22-8 against SEC competition that was, week in and week out, better than what they’ll face here.
Indiana State has both types of players, with a 1-2 rotation punch of Brennyn Cutts and Luke Hayden, and first baseman Luis Hernandez, who hit .369/.427/.708 with 22 dingers. The Sycamores win about 40 games and end up somewhere around the second line of regional seeds pretty consistently, but last season was the first time since 1986 that they advanced out of a regional.
The Illini won the Big Ten and returned to a regional for the first time since 2015, when they won 50 games and enjoyed the best regular season for a Big Ten team in the past decade. This edition isn’t quite so dangerous, but every Illini starter has an OPS of .800 or better. Western also returns to a regional after a nine-year absence; the Broncos’ greatest historical contribution to college baseball was hosting the first two College World Series in Kalamazoo in 1947 and 1948.
Corvallis Regional
1. Oregon State
2. UC Irvine
3. Nicholls
4. Tulane
The headliner in this regional is Oregon State’s slugging second baseman Travis Bazzana, who hit .418/.581/.939 — no, I checked, that is his slugging percentage, not his OPS — with 26 home runs. If I had the no. 1 pick in this draft, Bazzana is the player I would choose. I have a little gadget in my keyboard that gives me a moderately powerful electric shock whenever I type “the next Chase Utley” — (ZAP) — my GOD, that stings. The Beavs would be dangerous even without Bazzana — Aiden May is a tentpole-type starter, and outfielder Micah McDowell posted a .483 OBP this year — but they’ll have the advantage of having the best player on the field in almost every game they play.
With that said, Irvine is going to be an extremely tough out. This is the most experienced team in the country, with a collective OBP of .445. The Eaters finished only nine spots behind the Beavers in the RPI, went 10-3 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games (Oregon State went 8-9 against such opponents), and already swept the no. 4 seed in this regional, Tulane.
It’s always interesting when a team from a tiny conference jumps into a no. 3 seed, as Nicholls has. The Colonels played a very tough nonconference schedule, with 14 games against regional teams. But they lost 10 of those 14 games — including two against Tulane — and three of their four wins came against Grambling. Last year, Tulane — the best-dressed team in the country, for my money — made a miracle run through the AAC tournament to make a regional with just 19 wins. It’d take something similarly miraculous to prevent a Beavers-Eaters final in this regional, in my opinion.
Raleigh Regional
1. NC State
2. South Carolina
3. James Madison
4. Bryant
If I had to pick, this is going to be the most chaotic regional. Maybe not the most competitive, but the weirdest. NC State finished with a 6.30 staff ERA, which was 168th in Division I and by far the highest among the 16 regional hosts. South Carolina played itself out of a hosting bid by losing its last six regular season games, then beat two of the top five teams in the country to get to the SEC tournament semifinal. But their run in Hoover came to an end after the Gamecocks lost twice to LSU despite scoring 10 or more runs and leading in the ninth inning of both games.
The Gamecocks probably have the two best players in this regional — catcher Cole Messina and first baseman/outfielder Ethan Petry, who’s going to be next year’s version of Charlie Condon — but they just cannot get an out when they need one. And if the top two seeds in a regional can’t get an out, all bets are off.
JMU is a strong no. 3 seed — 43rd in RPI, 7-8 in Quad 1 games — with a lineup featuring five hitters with 10 or more home runs, including Fenwick Trimble, who led the team with a .371 batting average. But the Dukes’ staff ERA is also over 6.00. Bryant’s the clear fourth-best team in this group, but the Bulldogs have a couple guys who can bang, led by senior Gavin Noriega, who hit .338/.479/.692 with 18 homers in 54 games. Every game in this regional is going to end up 14-10; it’s going to be awesome and/or miserable.
Athens Regional
1. Georgia
2. UNC-Wilmington
3. Georgia Tech
4. Army West Point
You might think it’d be hackish to suggest that Army should show up to its first-round game against Georgia toting an enormous tifo of William T. Sherman. To get special jerseys made that read “FEDERAL GRAND Army” across the front. Not me. I’m not above making such jokes.
This time around, however, Condon is likely to be responsible for any explosions.
The BBCOR era’s home run king led a white-hot Bulldogs team from the bubble to the no. 9 national seed in the second half. Georgia Tech should be an interesting opponent. On paper, this is one of the weaker power conference at-large teams, and the Yellow Jackets have already lost to Georgia twice this year, but freshman Drew Burress hit .379/.506/.801 with 23 home runs this season and is nearly as dangerous at the plate as Condon. I’ve always had a soft spot for Georgia Tech because they wear jerseys that say “JACKETS” across the front of what any reasonable person would call a shirt. Also, their roster lists each player’s major — not unusual for such an academically prestigious school — and there are a lot of business administration majors in there. Turns out there’s not much overlap between future nuclear engineers and guys who can spin a curveball.
Also, don’t sleep on back-to-back CAA Tournament champions UNCW. The Seahawks bring their own 20-homer slugger, Tanner Thach, to Athens, along with a pitching staff that was 24th in the country in ERA.
Clemson Regional
1. Clemson
2. Vanderbilt
3. Coastal Carolina
4. High Point
After the 2002 season, Vanderbilt hired Clemson assistant Tim Corbin to be its new head coach. For his first staff, Corbin brought Tigers student assistant Erik Bakich along with him to Nashville, where they spent an additional seven years working together. Corbin built Vandy into a national powerhouse, reaching the College World Series final five times and winning twice, most recently in 2019 against Michigan, whose head coach at the time was… Erik Bakich.
Bakich has since returned to his school of origin, and will get another crack at his old mentor. The other big storyline is the final go-around for Coastal’s Hall of Fame coach Gary Gilmore, who led the Chanticleers to a national championship in 2016. This is the only MCWS since 2008 won by a team outside the power conferences, and Coastal’s only Division I national championship in a sport other than miniature golf and flip cup.
I finally got one of these under 150 words, and all it took was not mentioning any players.
Stillwater Regional
1. Oklahoma State
2. Nebraska
3. Florida
4. Niagara
OK State baseball is the Holliday family business: Current head coach Josh Holliday has been in the job for 12 seasons. His father worked there for 26 seasons, first as pitching coach and later as head coach. His younger brother was an assistant coach in Stillwater, briefly, and Holliday has two nephews you might’ve heard of: Jackson and Ethan. Jackson was committed to play for Oklahoma State before the Orioles made him the no. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, making Josh Holliday one of the very few people in the world whose life would be a lot easier if his nephew was just slightly worse at baseball.
But he’s found a way to manage. Holliday has taken the Pokes to the NCAA Tournament every year of his career, though he’s only made one College World Series in that time. Things are lining up pretty well for the Cowboys, who have sophomore slugger Nolan Schubart (.813 SLG, 20 HR in 45 games), two-way star Carson Benge, and a legit top-of-the-rotation 1-2 punch in Brian Holiday (no relation) and Sam Garcia.
In any other regional, Benge would be the best two-way player in the field. Unfortunately, Florida snuck into the tournament on the wide shoulders of Jac Caglianone, who hit .415 with 29 home runs in 55 games as a first baseman and chipped in 68 strikeouts in 62 innings out of the rotation. This is the Florida Man’s Shohei Ohtani.
After Tennessee and Kentucky, the entire SEC East was maddeningly inconsistent, but no team more so than Florida, which went 28-27 overall and 13-17 in the SEC. The Gators are 10-3 when Caglianone pitches and 18-24 otherwise; nevertheless, head coach Kevin O’Sullivan is starting true freshman Liam Peterson (5.83), not Caglianone, in the pivotal 2-3 opener against Nebraska.
This matchup — which will no doubt delight fans of mid-90s college football — pits the Gators against the Big Ten tournament winning Huskers, led by Big Ten pitcher of the year Brett Sears (9-0, 2.00 ERA, .176 opponent average). It’d be a nightmare first-round opponent even with Caglianone on the mound, and if these two teams beat each other up on Friday, Oklahoma State could well cruise to the super regional.
Santa Barbara Regional
1. UC-Santa Barbara
2. San Diego
3. Oregon
4. Fresno State
Under head coach Andrew Checketts, UCSB has supplanted Cal State Fullerton as the West Coast’s premier mid-major pitching factory. The Gauchos have made it to a regional seven times in 12 opportunities under Checketts, including a trip to the 2016 College World Series. This season, they’re sixth in the country in team ERA, fourth in hits allowed, and 20th in strikeout-to-walk ratio. They enter the NCAA Tournament on a 14-game winning streak and have not lost a home game this season. On the road, they took a weekend series from Oregon in Eugene back in March.
San Diego — best known as the alma mater of Kris Bryant — is no pushover in the pitching department either, being in the top 15 in the country in both WHIP and ERA. The Toreros won the WCC regular season and tournament titles, and in addition to their strong pitching, hit .304/.401/.467 as a team. They bring a 40-13 record into the postseason, and finished just six spots behind UCSB in RPI. Oregon also boasts a strong pitching staff (in this offense-friendly environment, a 4.80 ERA is 41st in the country and 15th among power conference teams), but the Ducks will be underdogs in their opening game.
And if you can hear a faint panting noise, it’s because college baseball diehards are struggling to control their excitement over Fresno State being a regional no. 4 seed. In 2008, the Bulldogs became the only regional no. 4 seed to win a national championship. This Bulldogs team stole a bid by winning the Mountain West tournament after going 29-26 in the regular season, and just barely sit inside the top 200 in the RPI. A return trip to Omaha this year would be quite a story.
College Station Regional
1. Texas A&M
2. Louisiana
3. Texas
4. Grambling
The Aggies are heavy favorites in their home regional, and rightly so. This is an extremely well-rounded team, finishing seventh in the country in ERA and fifth in home runs. They had not one but three players hit .300/.400/.600 or better with 20 or more home runs: Braden Montgomery, Jace LaViolette, and freshman Gavin Grahovac. Five weeks ago, the Aggies put on the single most demoralizing display I’ve seen in college baseball this season: They spotted Georgia nine runs in the top of the first, cut the lead to 9-8 by the end of that inning, and ultimately scored 19 unanswered runs to win by mercy rule after seven innings. I don’t know how any lead can feel safe against this team.
On the other hand, the Aggies are just 6-8 since that game, which means the Ragin’ Cajuns and (wouldn’t this be scandalous) Longhorns might have a shot here. Louisiana can go three deep with starters with an ERA under 3.30 — a rarity in this day and age, and a huge advantage when a team might need to play five games in four days to escape the regional. Texas boasts Big 12 Player of the Year Max Belyeu (.349/.446/.713) and a solid bullpen anchored by Gage Boehm and Andre Duplantier II, both of whom have K/9 ratios over 10, ERAs under 3.00, and opponent batting averages under .200. If the Aggies are playing at their best, none of that is going to matter, but they’ve been vulnerable the past few weeks.
Action kicks off on Friday at noon Eastern on various ESPN channels, so stock up on snacks, cancel all your plans, and get ready to binge watch baseball until your eyes go screwy. I can’t wait.
Source
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-dilettantes-guide-to-the-ncaa-tournament-part-2/
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