DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 10

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 10 breakdown! Things have continued to go the way they have been going for me over the last few weeks, which is to say that I’ve been making a little bit of $, but have yet to hit the big score.  One of my two best lineups last week was a Stroud double stack that featured Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz; the lineup also featured CeeDee Lamb. I also had a Dak stack with Lamb that also had Dell in it. Alas, the other pieces were not the right ones, but I’ll take the small victories and continue to search for the big hit. I was a near complete fade on Demario Douglas and instead opted for Hunter Henry in many spots, which helped me min cash in some GPPs as well.

Before we get into week 10, let’s do the review of week 9’s ownership numbers.

• I’m mostly happy with these. The process is continuing to let me know who will be highly owned and who will not.
• Devin Singletary ended up coming in under the projection because most realized what I did: it was a $*!@ play.
• The bottom part of these numbers are a little cause for concern. I leaned into Tank Dell pretty heavily last Sunday, I might have leaned harder had I known he would have single digit ownership.

On to Week 10!

Week 10 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Joe Mixon  –  30.6%
2. Marquise Brown  –  27.8%
3. Trey McBride  –  27.2%
4. Tank Dell  –  26.2%
5. Rachaad White  –  26%
6. Ja’Marr Chase  –  23.2%
7. Dallas Cowboys  –  22.8%
8. TJ Hockenson  –  22.1%
9. Tony Pollard  –  20.7%
10. Diontae Johnson  –  20.3%
11. Joe Burrow  –  19.1%
12. Amon-Ra St. Brown  –  17.8%
13. Bijan Robinson  –  17.8%
14. Deandre Hopkins  –  17.6%
15. Tyler Lockett  –  15.7%
16. Arizona Cardinals  –  15.7%
17. Tyler Boyd – 15.4%
18. Travis Etienne  –  15.4%
19. Najee Harris  –  14.4%
20. CMC  –  14%

Notes:

• I am HIGHLY skeptical of some of these numbers. I’m struggling to see how the top 3 stay at those percentages. I anticipate much will change as we head into the weekend. Stay vigilant.
• It makes a ton of sense that Diontae Johnson is coming in with this high of an ownership number. He has reclaimed his huge role in this offense (10 targets a game and over 30% target share), and his DK salary of $5400 is near criminal. This is a better running matchup than passing matchup for Pittsburgh, so just be cautious in GPPs.
• I think Joe Burrow double stacks will be a popular move in DFS this weekend, even with Tee Higgins out. I also anticipate that Tyler Boyd’s ownership numbers will rise.

Game Stacks

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The high total of 45 should make this an attractive spot for DFS players. For this game stack to come to fruition, however, the Jags are going to have to find a way to put up points against the 49ers defense. Teams have been electing to throw on the 49ers.

You can play CMC of course, he’ll probably score at least 1 TD, but the Jaguars defense have been quite good against the run, especially in recent weeks. They are allowing 79 rush yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. McCaffrey does get involved in the receiving game as well, so that could bail him out. At $9200 on DraftKings, however, CMC likely needs 2 scores and 28 or more fantasy points to make the optimal lineup. It’s doable, but it’s unlikely. I’ll be sure to pay attention to his ownership numbers throughout the weekend. If he ends up being lower owned, I’ll have more interest.

At 263.5 yards per game, the Jaguars are 3rd in the league in terms of passing yards allowed. They play a good amount of zone coverage, which bodes well for Brandon Aiyuk, who has had success against these types of coverage. Considering that the Niners have had 2 weeks to prepare, I’d anticipate a lean toward the passing game. Deebo Samuel should be active in this one, and he has good historic numbers against zone as well.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars employ a short and quick passing game. They are averaging 2 seconds per drop back. This sets up well as the Jags will have to deal with a strong pass rush from the 49ers. Quick hits to Evan Engram and Christian Kirk are likely, as well as dump offs to Etienne.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers seem to enjoy giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs and WRs as they are the 2nd worst team against both positions. They are also one of the worst teams in the league at getting off the field on third down. This helps to explain the ownership associated with Deandre Hopkins. Will Levis burst onto the scene a few weeks ago, but had a lackluster outing against the Steelers two Thursdays ago. Kyle Philips is an interesting play this Sunday with Treylon Burks likely to miss. Nick Westbrooke-Ikhine and Philips will operate out of the slot, but it will mostly be Philips in 3 WR sets. The Tampa slot CB is Christian Izien who has continued to allow receptions and yards a-plenty. He was the one supposedly guarding Tank Dell last week.

The Titans are not all that great against WRs themselves as they are giving up 15 catches a game and 177 yards to opposing wideouts. They are also yielding 114 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. This balanced vulnerability should translate well to the balanced attack of the Bucs. However, the Titans are also giving up the fewest receiving fantasy points to RBs.

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

We have a 46.5 total in this game. It should be a popular stack considering the general affinity for Burrow and Chase as well as the performance by CJ Stroud and the Texans last week against Tampa.

In the passing game, the Bengals look poised for a decent outing. Just pay attention as Chase has been limited at practice this week due to a back issue, and Higgins hamstring injury will keep him out. The Texans are top 10 in the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game, and their defense is suggestive of one that should be a pass funnel. This is why Joe Mixon’s ownership continues to baffle me. The Texans are no longer bad vs the run. They are allowing only 97 rush yards a game which is good for a top 10 defense in the league in that category. They also allow but 3.5 yards per carry which is one of the best in all of football.

The Bengals, however, love to give up yards on the ground. They are allowing an average of 129 yards per game and 5 yards per carry. I would say this bodes well for the Texans if Devin Singletary wasn’t the one in the backfield. This, however, is a better matchup for him than it was last week when he was chalky, so his ownership should be lower and he received but only a $400 price increase on DraftKings. If he were to fall into the end zone once or twice, that might be enough to be contrarian and vault us up the standings in GPPs.

Nico Collins hasn’t practiced this week and Robert Woods is likely to miss again. Should Collins miss, which it looks like he will,  Noah Brown and John Metchie enter the conversation. If you were brave enough to triple stack Stroud with Schultz, Dell and Brown last week, then you were quite happy after week 9. While I’m never a fan of chasing, the analytical truth is that this is another good matchup for the Texans offense in general. A shootout is quite possible here.

Detroit Lions @ LA Chargers

At 49 points, this is the highest total on the slate and the game that everyone will be attacking. As a word of caution, Jared Goff and the Lions historically play better in their domed building in Detroit than they do on the road. Additionally, the Chargers DST put up 27 fantasy points against the Jets last Monday night. While the Lions offense is better than the Jets, my point is that this game could disappoint. The likely scenario though is that there will be a lot of fantasy points available in this matchup. The Lions are first in the league in terms of plays per game over the last 3 weeks with 74. They are also averaging 7 more plays per game on the road vs home. The Chargers are trying to play slower ball, but at home they average 66 plays per game.

The Lions have had the luxury of preparing for this matchup for 2 weeks. Amon-Ra will continue to run many of his routes out of the slot, which sets him up to take advantage of Pro Football Focus’s 89th ranked CB in Ja’Sir Taylor. The Chargers are still allowing the most passing yards per game at 286, and Zach Wilson did throw for 263. Their defense is better vs the run, but the Lions will test them as David Montgomery likely returns in this matchup.

The Chargers are living and dying on the arm of Justin Herbert. Detroit is the 2nd best team in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with just 77, so the Chargers will likely take to the air. Keenan Allen’s 30% target share is attractive in this one. Austin Ekeler has been 2nd on the team in targets over the last two weeks as the Chargers didn’t have Mike Williams or Josh Palmer active.

Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks

This matchup is a very nice bounce-back spot for the Seattle offense, but it might be fool’s gold. With Chase Young and Montez Sweat no longer rushing the passer for Washington, Geno Smith should have ample time to throw the ball. The Commanders rank top 3 in yards, TDs, and fantasy points per game to outside WRs, which puts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in favorable matchups on both sides of the field. JSN is also attracting some ownership interest as he will be operating largely out of the slot. All 3 receivers are in good spots, so paying attention to ownership numbers to determine your path is something to consider.

The problem here is that the Seahawks are playing some slow football right now. On the season they are averaging 58 plays per games. Over the last 3 weeks they are averaging 53, which is good for dead last in the league. The Commanders, however, are playing quite fast. They are averaging 71 a game over the last 3 weeks including 77 last Sunday against the Patriots. There’s a chance that the Commanders force Seattle to up their pace, but the more likely scenario to me is that the Seahawks benefit from a few early turnovers, attempt to slow the game down, and then the Commanders try to make a late charge.

So if I’m stacking this environment, it will be on the Washington side. Sam Howell, who somehow is 2nd in the entire NFL in passing yards, with a receiving option or two, and one of the Seahawk WRs with the hope that he finds the end zone early or happens to luck into 2 TDs.

There is a good chance of rain throughout this game. As long as it isn’t torrential, it should be of minimal effect. It could scare other DFS players off this game too. Bring it on.

One-Offs and Skinny Stacks

• Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. The Vikings are a heavy blitzing team so Derek Carr could find himself under duress quite frequently. The Saints’ high rate of plays per game plus Olave’s high target rate when facing the blitz has me interested here from a volume perspective. This scenario could also lead to multiple check downs to Kamara.
  • Taysom Hill can no longer be ignored at the TE position. The dude is out there like it’s a pass, run and catch competition. The rate at which the Saints were using Kamara was suicidal as Kamara would have eventually broken down. This QB/RB/WR/TE hatchet man could be TE2 on the entire season after this week.
• Cowboys DST and Tony Pollard. Both are going to be popular, as will playing them together. They are also expensive. Double digit sacks is not out of the realm of possibilities.
• Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews. No one is going to own them and the Ravens offense is harder to stop over the course of an entire game than the Browns offense is, but I wouldn’t play both in one lineup this weekend.
• Aaron Jones. The Steelers are allowing 133.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Packers have to utilize Jones if they want to win (big if though).

Where am I Going?

• I’ll be making around 50 lineups this weekend, so I’ll be mixing and matching mostly everything you have read above.
• A piece or two of the passing attacks of Detroit and Los Angeles may be in order.
• At 4 – 5% ownership, Sam Howell might be my preferred QB as he will likely be in a trailing game script. He’ll probably have a turnover or two on his way there, however.
• Will Levis stacks will probably be my second highest.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.