DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 11

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 11 breakdown! Well, I finally bucked the trend of making a little bit of $ and ended up with an L on the week. My Sam Howell stacks performed admirably, but the Will Levis ones did not. Most of my lineups had Amon-Ra or Keenan Allen or both. In order to make that work, I had a lot of Devin Singletary exposure, which worked out nicely. I ended up with zero Dak Prescott and only a little of CeeDee Lamb as I just did not see the Boys pouring it on with the passing attack like that. Lesson learned. Poor seasonal Tony Pollard owners though, huh?

Before we get into week 11, let’s do the review of week 10’s ownership numbers.

• Again, mostly happy with these, process seems to be working.
• It may be wise to downgrade percentages when a player is coming into a contest with a reported injury. Both Ja’Marr Chase and T.J. Hockenson came in lower than their projection, which to me is indicative of the public being hesitant to trust that those players can have ceiling games whilst being banged up. Then again, it could be flukey. Something to monitor though.
• How about that Rachaad White projection!
  
  

Offensive Lines Update

This past offseason I broke down each team’s offensive line, but I wanted to take a moment just to update some things. First, a ranking of each team in terms of their offensive line’s overall effectiveness:

1. Detroit Lions
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Cleveland Browns
9. Miami Dolphins
10. Minnesota Vikings
11. Buffalo Bills
12. San Francisco 49ers
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Houston Texans
15. Green Bay Packers
16. Las Vegas Raiders
17. Denver Broncos
18. Los Angeles Chargers
19. Seattle Seahawks
20. Cincinnati Bengals
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
22. New Orleans Saints
23. Washington Commanders
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. New England Patriots
26. Los Angeles Rams
27. Carolina Panthers
28. Chicago Bears
29. Arizona Cardinals
30. New York Jets
31. Tennessee Titans
32. New York Giants

• The Titans have lost LG Daniel Brunskill and LT Andre Dillard. This makes an already mediocre unit much worse. It helps to explain Derrick Henry’s dip in production. It also means you should start the Jaguars defense this week.
• The Bengals have been banged up throughout the season, which helps to explain their low rank and Joe Mixon’s lack of ceiling production. Joe Burrow injury aside, it helps explain the Ravens (and others) ability to generate pressure on Bengals QBs on Thursday.
• The Giants are without RT Evan Neal and LG Mark Glowinski, and are also not good to begin with. Even though Sweat and Young are gone, the Commanders should still make life difficult for Goodfella Tommy DeVito.

Week 11 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Trey McBride  –  27.5%
2. Tank Dell  –  23.5%
3. Devin Singletary  –  21.8%
4. Tyree Hill  –  21.3%
5. Travis Etienne  –  19.4%
6. Evan Engram  –  18.9%
7. James Conner  –  18.8%
8. Marquise Brown  –  18.4%
9. Josh Jacobs  –  17.8%
10. Breece Hall  –  17.6%
11. Michael Wilson  –  17.3%
12. Kyler Murray  –  16.3%
13. Aaron Jones  –  16.2%
14. Rondale Moore  –  16%
15. Washington Commanders  –  16%
16. Garrett Wilson  –  15.6%
17. Christian Kirk  –  15.3%
18. Christian McCaffrey  –  14.5%
19. Brock Purdy  –  13.6%
20. Jahmyr Gibbs  –  13.5%

Notes:

• Start your Cardinals, huh? At least one, probably 2 or 3, of the Cardinals players is going to massively disappoint if these numbers stay true.
• Humans are a fickle bunch. Devin Singletary failed at massive ownership in week 9. After a great outing at lower ownership in week 10, folks are back on him.
• I anticipate much will change, especially the Miami RBs as that situation becomes clearer.
• Pat Freiermuth could make his return on Sunday. He’s $2500 and will be chalk if he plays.

Stacks

*I’ve changed the title of this section to just “stacks” this week as I’m not sold that a full on game stack will be the answer on Sunday. There are some instances where it could be viable, but as you’ll see there are many mismatches in week 11.

Dallas Cowboys

I’m not falling for this again. Despite a 16.5 point spread against the Gmen, the Cowboys displayed their propensity to stick to a high volume passing attack despite a matchup that was likely win-able on the ground. In fairness, I did say that this team was going to be much more pass heavy under McCarthy and Schottenheimer, so that’s on me for not sticking to my guns last week.

This week the Boys are favored by 10.5 points. Teams have been running on the Panthers of late, but Tua and the Dolphins put up 262 and 3 TDs against this team a month ago while also having Mostert go over 100 yards rushing. A balanced attack is possible here, but I still expect the Cowboys to throw. Over the last 4 games, Lamb has a 34% target share and the Cowboys have been increasing their overall pace of play.

Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears

I’m not sure the Bears can make this a game, but with a 47.5 point total, Vegas thinks there will be points scored here. Detroit has been playing at a fast pace lately, and the Bears have shown themselves to be vulnerable against good passing attacks. Even though Chicago is being quite stingy about allowing RB production, Detroit should eventually turn to their run game once the game script is on their side, but they will likely build a lead with their passing game, specifically with Amon-Ra.

Justin Fields is likely returning in this matchup. The Lions gave up  38 points to the Chargers last week, were lucky enough to play the Raiders in Josh McDaniels’ final game, and were blown out the building by the Ravens the week before that. This could be a sneaky immediate get right spot for Fields, especially if he uses his legs.

Miami Dolphins

Fresh off a bye and looking at a game total of 46.5, this one looks to be favorable for the Dolphins in every single way.

The Raiders passing defense looks decent on paper, but then you look at their opponents over the last month and you see names like Jordan Love, Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, and Tommy DeVito. Tyreek and Waddle will be going up against a secondary that includes Marcus Peters who in previous matchups against Tyreek has given up 10-215-2, 5-77-1 and 11-190-2 receiving lines to him. This secondary also has Jackorian Bennet and Amik Robertson, Pro Football Focus’ 122nd and 86th ranked CBs. Nate Hobbs has been playing well, but Hill moves all over the formation and will be able to get away from Hobbs. I’d argue that this also puts Jaylen Waddle in a good position as he just had the bye to help him get healthy.

The Raiders are also conceding many yards on the ground. Over the last 4 weeks, they are giving up an average of 156 rushing yards per game. The Miami Dolphins are averaging the most rushing yards before contact in the NFL. Breakaway runs from either Mostert or Achane or both could be on the table this Sunday.

While the matchup isn’t overly great, especially with CB Jalen Ramsay back, Davante Adams is looking at sub 2% ownership. Make sure you reread that sentence.

Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans

This one could have a little back and forth. With one of the highest totals on the slate (47.5), many DFS players should be gravitating to this matchup with 2 good offenses going up against 2 mediocre defenses. Houston’s secondary employs predominantly zone coverage. Michael Wilson has had his best outings against this coverage. Last week Kyler Murray targeted Trey McBride as his first-read 35% of the time, but Wilson was 2nd at 19%. Trey McBride is arguably a must start in all formats. At $4400, I expect he’ll exceed his ownership projection on a slate with no Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Goedert, Taysom, Pitts nor Jonnu. The X-factor in McBride’s ownership is Pat Freiermuth’s status. Hollywood Brown was a disappointment in Kyler’s return as he only had one catch. However, he’s a big play waiting to happen, and the Texans secondary can be susceptible to that just like they were against Ja’Marr Chase last week.

James Conner returned last week but was not highly involved in the passing game. That could be the Cardinals electing to not expose him to extra hits and/or because Trey McBride and Rondale Moore were operating in that area of the field. Either way, Conner will likely need a return to high involvement in the passing attack to reach a ceiling game as the Texans have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher this season.

Dameon Pierce is likely to miss this matchup, so Singletary is a popular option despite his modest salary increase. Arizona is yielding over 125 yards a game and over 4 yards per carry. I want to fade at his ownership, but this is a better matchup than the one against Tampa 2 weeks ago.

CJ Stroud is becoming someone to consider from week to week. He now has the 2nd most passing yards on the season and is doing a good job of throwing more TDs than INTs. The WR room is something we need to pay attention to as we head into the weekend. Nico Collins has been practicing and is likely to return, but Noah Brown has not practiced on Wednesday and Thursday as he’s been dealing with a knee ailment. The Texans could have a full disposal of WRs on Sunday, including TE Dalton Schultz, which could make picking and choosing which pass catchers to stack with Stroud challenging.

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy with Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk. The Tampa Bay secondary is banged up as Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are both dealing with injuries. The Bucs have been allowing fantasy points to opposing pass catchers and have become a pass-funnel defense. This should be the second week in a row that the Niners lean on their passing game. I’ll be monitoring George Kittle’s ownership numbers as well. He doesn’t typically have big outing when both Aiyuk and Deebo play, however.

Of course, you can go with CMC here too, and I probably will. If he gets there though, it is likely through his involvement in the passing game, and he’ll likely need multiple scores.

If I were to run this one back, Mike Evans is the clear choice.

Buffalo Bills

What appears to be the best part of playing the Bills this week is that they are low owned. Yes, they didn’t perform well against this defense in week 1, but they have game film on that matchup already, they’re likely pissed about their loss to Denver, and they jettisoned OC Ken Dorsey and have interim Joe Brady now at the helm. Brady probably should have had a shot at OC in other offenses prior to this, but I expect the Bills to play inspired football. Sub 4% Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs don’t come along every day.

Make no mistake though, this is a tough matchup for Buffalo in terms of fantasy players being able to achieve ceiling games. The Jets have 2 of the best CBs in all of football. However, over the years I’ve learned not to discount intangibles, and the worst case scenario for the Bills is that they lose this game.

One-Offs

• Austin Ekeler. Green Bay just allowed the tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to eclipse 200 total yards against them.
  • At least one of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, or Jayden Reed should be able to put together a good day against the Charger secondary that allows the 5th most fantasy points to WRs.
• Cooper Kupp. He needs to win his matchup against CB Devon Witherspoon for the Rams to have a chance to win. Careful though, only 2 teams have given up fewer fantasy points per game to the WR position over the last month than Seattle.
  • Darrell Henderson will get one last chance at RB1 status before Kyren Williams’ likely return next week. The Seahawks are the 5th or 6th worst team against opposing RBs (depending on the scoring used) in terms of fantasy points allowed per game. I’m not expecting a ton of production here, but at 5K and 4% ownership, there are worse options.
• Sam Howell. Dak Prescott just threw all over this defense. The Commanders are a high volume passing attack as well. Another 300+ passing yards performance is possible for Howell. Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin were basically nonexistent against Seattle’s zone coverage in week 10. The Giants play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which should be good news for Washington’s 2 perimeter WRs.
  • The Giants are allowing close to 130 yards rushing and over 4.5 yards per carry. Brian Robinson is in smash spot.
• Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley. It has to be this week for Ridley and the Jaguars. Jacksonville will likely employ a balanced attack, but Ridley has to be featured in the passing game this Sunday. Why else did they acquire this guy? Titans CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting and Anthony Kendall have not been practicing, and they’re secondary is not all that good to begin with. Ridley’s lack of production has coincided with Zay Jones being out. Should that trend continue, it would make sense to pivot to Kirk.
• Courtland Sutton. Minnesota is allowing the most catches, the 10th most receiving yards, and the 7th most TDs to outside WRs. Sutton has a 24% target share including a 47% share in the red zone. To make matters worse for the Vikings, they are banged up in the secondary and just lost linebacker Jordan Hicks, arguably their best defensive player.
• Jerome Ford. With DTR under center for the Browns, I expect Cleveland to lean on the run game even more in week 11. Ford has had 43 touches in the last 2 weeks, and that was with Deshaun Watson at QB. The Browns are also running the most plays (73) over the last 3 weeks, and the Steelers are giving up over 130 rush yards per game and over 4 yards per carry.
• In terms of DSTs, I’m looking at Jaguars, Boys, Bills, Vikings, Chargers, Steelers, and Seahawks.

Where am I Going (or not going)?

• I’m making 50 – 60 lineups again, and I’m going to employ a few different stacks. Dak, Stroud, Tua, Goff, Howell, Purdy, and Allen are all under consideration. I’m likely fading some of the Cardinals players, and I’m fully fading Kyler Murray solely due to ownership.
• If Mostert and Achane stay low-owned, (a big if) and if they both play, it’s going to be hard to not play one of them or both.
• Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are looking too low-owned, as is Adams.
• Ekeler is a good price range ownership pivot off CMC and Etienne. That will just come down to how able I am to get him into lineups at his salary.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.