DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 14

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 14 breakdown! Week 13 was rather good to me. My best lineup featured a Gardner Minshew stack with Derrick Henry has a run back. I had Deebo Samuel in the flex and Sam LaPorta at TE. Alec Pierce having a day instead of Josh Downs was unforeseen and ultimately cost me a real high finish, however.

I was a near full fade on Zach Moss, which worked out for the most part. His 7.7 fantasy points, however, were enough to net some people GPP wins.

Here’s the review of week 13’s ownership numbers.

• I am happy for the most part again.
• Curtis Samuel’s projection should’ve been higher.
• I anticipated that Diontae Johnson and Javonte Williams would not be as highly owned as they were projected to be, but that could have been better.
• I’m almost always going to try to find an excuse to fade someone who is as highly owned as Zach Moss was.

Week 14 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Zach Moss  –  36.2%
2. Christian McCaffrey  –  27.9%
3. Cleveland Browns  –  27.8%
4. Drake London  –  23.8%
5. Zach Charbonnet  –  19.9%
6. Isiah Pacheco  –  19.8%
7. Rashee Rice  –  18.2%
8. Josh Jacobs  –  17.9%
9. Joe Mixon  –  17.6%
10. Bijan Robinson  –  17.1%
11. Michael Pittman  – 17.1%
12. David Njoku  –  16.5%
13. Javonte Williams  – 16.4%
14. Brandon Aiyuk  –  14.9%
15. Elijah Moore  –  14.6%
16. Keenan Allen  –  14.2%
17. Rachaad White  –  14.1%
18. Kyle Pitts  –  14%
19. Jonathan Mingo  – 13.9%
20. Brock Purdy  –  13.7%

Notes:

• Zach Moss, despite his low fantasy performance and increased price, is projected to be the highest owned player again. It’s a little more warranted this week as the Bengals are the 4th worst team against RBs on the season and 9th worst over the last 4 weeks.
• Drake London? Really? That high? Against a top 10 teams against WRs in the last month? I suppose he doesn’t have to do much to hit value, but that’s quite high. However, Bucs’ CB Jamel Dean hasn’t been practicing as he deals with an ankle injury, and  CB Josh Hayes has been battling an illness.
  • Same with Kyle Pitts. These are the Art Smith led Falcons we’re talking about. Tread lightly.
• Charbonnet is going to have to be monitored as he sat out practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday. There are also whispers of Kenneth Walker returning as well. Charbonnet should play, but Deejay Dallas would suddenly become chalk should Charbonnet and Walker miss.
• Monitor Pacheco, he hasn’t practiced this week yet.

Game Stacks

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

In his last 3 matchups against Chicago, Justin Fields has had at least 100 yards rushing each time. The Lions have been consistently allowing big games to QBs as they are the 2nd worst team against signal callers over the last month. They’ve been especially bad against mobile QBs, and with 30 rush attempts in his last 2 games, Justin Fields qualifies as such. The Lions are also 4th worst against WRs, so pairing Fields with DJ Moore makes a ton of sense. In his last 6 games with Fields, Moore is averaging 119 yards. The Lions aren’t especially bad against TEs, but I’m trying to be wary of the Cole Kmet 2 TD game.

On the defensive side of things, the Bears have been much improved of late as they are top 12 against all positions of the last month. The QBs they’ve faced though are named Dobbs, Goff, Young and Carr. They did give up 236 yards and 2 TDs to Jared Goff in their matchup from 3 weeks ago, but they did pick him off 3 times. Montgomery, Gibbs and Amon-Ra all found the end zone once, but it was Monty who led the way on the ground with 12 attempts for 76 yards. The results are unlikely to be exactly the same, but Detroit’s offense is good enough to move the ball against the Bears, so a back and forth game with a 43 total could be in play.

Monitor the weather, but neither rain nor wind over 20 mph are currently predicted. The Bears are also running the 3rd most plays per game over their last 3 games, and the Lions are 3rd on the year in terms of plays per game but had an anomalous outing last week against the Saints as they only ran 56 plays.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

CMC’s ownership looks warranted this week as the Seahawks are the 3rd worst team against RBs over the last 4 weeks. The 49ers looked poised to exploit the weakness of any opposing team like they did last week against Philly’s porous secondary. They’re my current favorite to win the Super Bowl, and attacking Seattle with their pass catching RB makes all the sense in the world for week 14. McCaffrey will probably need 2 scores (like he in did in this matchup 2 weeks ago) and/or need to exceed either 100 yards rushing or receiving for the DK 3 point bonus, but it’s in play this week.

George Kittle is a sneaky play considering he did next to nothing in this matchup 2 weeks ago. Seattle’s linebacker core is banged up and aging. Should the 49ers elect to attack the middle of the field, Kittle could see an uptick in usage.

Figuring out which Niner WR is going to have a good day can be a pain, but Deebo Samuel’s usage has been steadily increasing in recent weeks, culminating in his ceiling outing last week.

On the other side, no one was expecting that performance from Geno Smith and DK Metcalf against the Cowboys in week 13, especially after Smith’s dud of a performance against these 49ers. I’m not expecting the world from Smith, nor will I be stacking the Seahawks, but one of their pass catchers would make for a decent runback against this middle of the road pass defense. The Niners are elite against the run, so I’m not interested in the Seattle RB group. Maybe Dallas with the hopes of him catching the ball 5 or 6 times, but that’s only if he’s the last man standing on Sunday morning.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

This tilt has a total of 48.5, but the ownership numbers are not reflecting that many are expecting a shootout. I think that has to change over the weekend as these 2 teams often yield high scoring affairs. Going back to 2020, this matchup has produced totals of 44, 78 (an OT game), 58, 62, and 43. Considering the state of the NFL and all the unders that have hit this season, I’m not expecting 58 or higher, but coming close to the 48.5 total is in play.

Rashee Rice is in a good spot against a banged up secondary. Over his last 2 games, Rice has 19 targets. He had 8 grabs and 64 yards last week and 8 catches for 107 yards and  a score 2 weeks ago. The Bills have statistically looked good against opposing offenses, but one of those matchups was against the Zach Wilson who managed but 81 yards that day.

The Chiefs RB situation needs monitoring as both Isaiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon are banged up. Pacheco’s ownership is high, quite high for someone who didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday. McKinnon, however, returned to practice on Thursday. The Bills are middle of the road against RBs.

The Chiefs secondary can be attacked. They play 2 high safeties at the league’s highest rate, which bodes well for Gabe Davis. He’ll be seeing a lot of CB Jaylen Watson, Pro Football Focus’ 90th ranked CB. Stefon Diggs’ ownership is too low for someone of his abilities. He will have to overcome his matchup against CB L’Jarius Sneed, but I’ll be putting money on Diggs being able to do so, and I’ll be stacking one or both with Josh Allen on Sunday. The Bills are also averaging the most plays per game over their last 3 games, but they ran an astronomical 92 in their matchup with Philadelphia in week 12.

• The Colts should have the option to attack the Bengals on both the ground and in the air. Over the last 4 weeks, the Bengals are 7th worst against QBs, 9th worst against RBs, and 7th worst against WRs. This is a much better matchup for Moss, and Taylor had 2 TDs against Indianapolis in their previous matchup. Michael Pittman is also in line for a nice day considering his rapport with Minshew and the Bengals don’t have CB Cam Taylor-Britt.
  • The Colts defense has been playing much better of late, which could mean a tougher outing for what looks like a chalky Jake Browning (11.3% owned).
• Justin Jefferson. The Raiders have been good against WRs over the last month in terms of fantasy points allowed, but they just cut CB Marcus Peters. This will leave them with Amik Robertson and Jack Jones to man the outside. Robertson is Pro Football Focus’ 87th CB and Jones doesn’t qualify to be ranked but does qualify to be let go by the Patriots after lingering disinterest on the sidelines and lack of commitment like missing curfew. Justin Jefferson is one of the best WRs in football and is looking at sub 5% ownership at a depressed salary. Yes, it’s his first game back from an injury and Kirk Cousins is not under center. Stars are stars though. Look what Ja’Marr Chase did last Monday night with a backup QB.
  • Davante Adams. Anytime Adams has low ownership numbers, sub 6%, I’m going to have interest. The Vikings have been better against WRs over the last month, but a look a their schedule does not show a WR of the caliber as Adams. The Vikings are solid against the run, so give me Adams as the way for the Raiders to move their offense.
• Alvin Kamara. In a PPR setting, Captain Checkdown is in play against a Panthers team that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the RB position on the year. They’ve been better of late, but from a volume perspective, there could be a lot plays run in this matchup as both teams are top 10 on the year and in the last 3 weeks in plays per game. This bodes well for Kamara on a site like DraftKings.
• Courtland Sutton. The Chargers are allowing the most passing yards per game, and that’s even after shutting out the Patriots last week. Over the last month, the Chargers are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to WRs. Sutton’s red zone target share is enough to put him consideration to score at least one TD on Sunday.
• Isaiah Likely. No Mark Andrews and the Rams are the 3rd worst team against TEs on the season and are 8th worst over the last 4 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Likely’s projected 12% ownership increases as we head into the weekend.
• Elijah Moore may end up being WR1 as Amari Cooper has not been practicing.
  • Christian Kirk is also out, so a pass catcher for Jacksonville is likely to inherit some targets. Parker Washington was the beneficiary last week. CJ Beathard and Trevor Lawrence have both been limited at practice this week, so which QB plays is still up in the air.
  • Cleveland is averaging the most plays per game on the year, and they’re 2nd over their last 3. Jacksonville is 6th on the season and 5th over their last 3. A player from each side is enticing. It’ll likely be raining, but the wind shouldn’t be an issue.

Where am I Going?

• Josh Allen with 1 or 2 of Davis and Diggs and running it back with Rice.
• Jefferson and Adams are players I want to get to.
• CMC is a priority for me as well, which at his salary and the salary of the above players will make squeezing it all in difficult.
• I’ll have Fields stacks too.
• A player or 2 from the Cleveland and Jacksonville will likely have a good day on Sunday.
• The Colts and Bengals environment might be a sneaky good spot.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.