DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 15

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 15 breakdown! Week 14 was not good. Zach Moss was a huge disappointment and somehow Desmond Ridder was an ideal QB to have. Don’t forget about the Saturday games. In fact, here’s the link to my breakdown of the Saturday slate.

Here’s the review of week 14’s ownership numbers:

• The top numbers are ones I can totally accept.
• Bijan Robinson’s and Chris Olave’s numbers don’t make me happy.
• David Njoku is one I am particular upset about as I was full fade on him thinking he’d be the most popular TE on the slate. I wanted to turn the TV off after his 2nd TD.

Week 15 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Zeke Elliott  –  36.2%
2. CMC  –  32.7%
3. Kyren Williams  –  32.1%
4. Wan’Dale Robinson  –  24.9%
5. Trey McBride  –  23.6%
6. Jayden Reed  –  22.4%
7. Garrett Wilson  –  20.9%
8. Matthew Stafford  –  17.9%
9. Tony Pollard  –  16.9%
10. Chig Okonkwo  –  16.6%
11. Demarcus Robinson  –  16.6%
12. Tucker Kraft  –  16.4%
13. DeAndre Hopkins  –  15%
14. Puka Nacua  –  14.3%
15. CeeDee Lamb  –  14%
16. Terry McLaurin  –  13.5%
17. Rachaad White  –  13.1%
18. Rashee Rice  –  12.3%
19. Bijan Robinson  –  12.2%
20. Buffalo Bills  –  11.5%

Notes:

• Zeke’s probably going to be higher.
• Cooper Kupp isn’t on this list, he probably will be by Sunday.
• Deebo Samuel should probably be on here too.
• Not sure why the Bills DST is on the list.

Game Stacks

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers are 12 point favorites and the game has a 48 total.

The Cardinals have been the 3rd worst team against RBs, the 6th worst vs WRs, and the 8th worst vs TEs over the last 4 weeks. CMC’s ownership numbers make sense, but just remember that he needs a ceiling game of 2 TDs and/or over 100 yards receiving or rushing to make the optimal lineup.

In the last 2 games, Deebo Samuel has 15 total touches for 288 yards and 5 TDs. Deebo plays all over the formation, ranks 2nd in the NFL against zone coverage, and 1st against 2 high safety looks. Arizona predominantly plays both of those schemes. I’m going to the well again with him. Kittle and Aiyuk will be hard pressed to have ceiling outings. The likely game script here is for the 49ers to jump out early and then lean on the ground game for most of the day. A garbage time TD or 2 for Jordan Mason could be in play.

Considering the likely trailing game script, Kyler Murray should be forced to pass and use his legs here, but he’s also likely to make mistakes along the way. Hollywood Brown and Michael Wilson have been limited at practice this week. Should either miss, I’m interested in a low owned Greg Dortch.

Trey McBride is top 3 in receptions and fantasy points among all TEs since Week 8. The 49ers aren’t an easy matchup, but the volume continues to be there for the chalky McBride.

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are favored b y 6.5 and the total in this matchup has climbed to a slate high 50.5 points.

Count me as surprised by what the Rams were able to do in the passing game against the Ravens last week. Considering that Baltimore is one of the best defenses in football, what are the Rams going to do to the Commanders? On the year and in the last month, Washington has not been good. Focusing on just the last 4 weeks, we can see that the Commanders are the 2nd worst team against the QB, the worst team against RBs, the 2nd worst against WRs, and the best against TEs. The Rams are going to have their choice between Kyren Williams or their WRs when it comes to how they want to beat Washington.

Cooper Kupp has arguably the best matchup out of the slot against CB Danny Johnson, but Puka Nacua and/or Demarcus Robinson could certainly have their way against Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller. Kupp has 18 targets over his last 2 games, and had a TD in each game.

Sam Howell has continued his gunslinging ways as the season has progressed. The 49ers have been pretty stout against the run and against the TE position, but their weakness has been against WRs. The 49ers use a mix of man and zone coverage. Jahan Dotson is not to be trusted against zone. Curtis Samuel has 17 targets in his last 2 games and the Rams are allowing production to opposing slot WRs at a top 10 rate.

Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills

This game opened at 50.5 but has dropped to to 50 with the Bills favored by 2, which suggests a back and forth matchup. Both teams also are not afraid of pushing the play volume up a few notches, so a fantasy bonanza good indeed be in play.

The Bills already depleted secondary just got more depleted with the loss of Safety Micah Hyde. Considering the injuries, the slot matchup with CB Taron Johnson, and the 2 high safety scheme that Buffalo employs, Ceedee Lamb should feast. The Cowboys have been throwing heavily and should continue to do so on Sunday.

Under new play caller Joe Brady, the Bills have upped their pace of play, but they are also running the ball more. As such, James Cook has benefitted. He should still see touches on Sunday even though Dallas has been one of the best defenses against the RB position over the last month.

The Cowboys defense should dial up pressure against Josh Allen, which may make him likely to scramble for rushing yards. DK Metcalf and AJ Brown had successful days against the Cowboys, so I would expect the Bills to look Stefon Diggs’ way fairly often. Gabe Davis struggles in general, but especially against man coverage, which the Boys like to use.

• Anytime Tyreek Hill is going to be low owned, count me interested. Yes, this is a tough matchup and Tyreek may miss the game since he hasn’t practiced all week, but I’m not ready to count him out of a possible 100 yard performance and/or a 2 TD day. Another knock against Hill this week is the South Florida is dealing with a weather system that probably would have a name attached to it if it was during hurricane season.
• People don’t seem interested in playing Patrick Mahomes or his pass catchers against the New England Patriots defense, but it’s not like they are lining up to play the New England DST either. Mahomes should have all day to pass as the Patriots don’t generate pressure that well. Also, CEH sucks and the Pats are good against the run. The Chiefs aren’t going to run the ball on Sunday if Pacheco is out again.
• Mike Evans is of interest to me after a down game last week, so his ownership numbers should be depressed. CB Jaire Alexander should miss and the Packers have a difficult time generating pressure on the QB, which should give Baker time to find Evans down the field. Chris Godwin could miss this game too, so I’m not opposed to Cade Otton or Trey Palmer either, but Evans is my preferred play.
• Bijan Robinson. The Falcons want to run and the Panthers can’t stop it.
• It’s a revenge game for Deandre Hopkins against the Houston Texans. Garrett Wilson just went bananas against this defense and specifically against CB Steven Nelson who is allowing 16.1 yards per reception. Nelson is the CB who DHop should see most of the day.
  • Noah Brown. Casey Keenum has been decent in good offenses before. No Tank Dell. Probably no Nico Collins. In case anyone forgot, the Titans are awful against perimeter WRs. I’m not opposed to stacking Keenum and Brown and running it back with DHop.
• Amari Cooper or David Njoku. Joe Flacco has attempted over 44 passes in each of his 2 starts. Cooper saw 14 targets last week and Njoku had a 25% target share which resulted in 2 TDs. The Bears have been better on defense, especially against the RB position. If they keep the Browns from running the ball, expect Flacco to take to the air. Expect it even more if the Browns fall behind early.
  • It could be a sneaky decent spot for both Justin Fields and DJ Moore. The Browns defense, formidable on paper, is dealing with some injuries. CB Denzel Ward and S Juan Thornhill may miss this game. S Grant Delpit is out as well.
• It might be a good day for Jordan Love and some of his pass catchers as the Buccaneers could be without CB Jamel Dean and LB Devin White. Jayden Reed’s ownership makes sense considering his growing role and with Christian Watson unlikely to play.
• The Saints v Giants game could feature a lot of plays considering how fast the Saints have been playing this year, and the fact that the Gmen have increased their no huddle rate significantly with Tommy DeVito at QB. It may be a good matchup for Saquon. He had 20 carries last time out, found the end zone twice, and the Giants offensive line had Andrew Thomas return and they might get Evan Neal back too.

Where am I Going?

• Brown with DHop on the other side.
• Patrick Mahomes.
• Bijan.
• Evans.
• A Howell stack with F1 and/or Samuel.
• Might fade Stafford and role with Kyren Williams aka Toddy Gurley, Jr.
• Deebo.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.