DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 18

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 18 breakdown! Week 17 was….awful. Not only did I get to witness 2 championships I would have won had things broke a different way in seasonal, but I blew nearly every DFS dollar I invested. Last year I took a GPP down in Week 18, and I think there is a definite advantage to be had this week. I’m not sure if that’s because I’m willing to pay attention to players and teams incentivized to win, or because I had an inkling of which players would get some serious run in meaningless games, or luck, but I am quite hopeful going into this week. Last year Elijah Mitchell helped me to some nice $, but unfortunately that is not a sneaky play this year. Let’s see what other advantages may be out there for our GPP contests. We have another 13 game slate, so there is a lot of opportunity for variance and many an excuse to fade chalk.

Before we get into this week though, here’s the review of week 17’s ownership numbers:

• Wan’Dale Robinson is the only thing that really bothers me here. My best lineup last week was a Tyrod Taylor/Wan’Dale stack that had Kyren on the other side and had DJ Moore in it. I might have utilized Robinson more, but my builds were also not leading toward him in general, so that probably should have tipped me off to his ownership being lower.

Week 18 GPP Ownership Report

These will DEFINITELY change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Jordan Mason  –  33.1%
2. CeeDee Lamb  –  27.9%
3. Justin Jefferson  –  26.5%
4. Christian Kirk  –  24.3%
5. Tony Pollard   –  21.5%
6. Zamir White  –  19.1%
7. Trey McBride  –  18.1%
8. Chirs Olave  –  15.8%
9. Cincinnati Bengals  – 15.2%
10. James Conner 13.9%
11. Breece Hall  –  13.7%
12. Zeke Elliott  – 13.3%
13. Kenneth Walker  –  13.1%
14. Los Angeles Chaergers  –  13%
15. Dak Prescott  –  12.8%
16. Davante Adams  –  12.5%
17. Noah Gray  –  12.3%
18. Evan Engram  –  12.3%
19. Amon-Ra St. Brown  –  12.3%
20. Tyler Lockett  –  12.1%
21. Nick Mullens  –  12%
22. Jake Ferguson  –  11.8%
23. Pierre Strong  –  11.7%
24. Deandre Hopkins  –  11.5%
25. DJ Moore  –  11.4%

Notes:

• The reason why these are going to change are due to many week 18 factors.
  • First are the Saturday games; their results could determine what teams and DFS players elect to do on Sunday.
  • As usual, there are a multitude of injuries which could factor into this weekend.
  • More news is going to come out. For instance, despite all the incentives OBJ has, Baltimore announced that he isn’t going to play on Saturday. This could happen to other players as late as Sunday at 11:30 EST.
• There’s a bonus 5 slots today just to show how tight some of the mid-chalk could be this week.
• Careful with Mason, we don’t know if it will be him or Mitchell, who is battling an illness, yet.
• Christian Kirk is still on IR, but he has been practicing this week albeit in a limited fashion. He’s only 3K on DraftKings.
• I think Dak comes in higher. His game matters.

A Note about this Slate

There are 2 games on Saturday that may have implications for the Sunday games. The Steelers v Ravens and Texans v Colts results could affect how teams strategize and utilize players on Sunday. Luckily, this only applies to the AFC. The Ravens have the #1 seed locked up and will likely rest many of their starters, but Pittsburgh needs to win or tie to have any sort of hope of making the playoffs.

With the other game, the Colts currently sit in the better position, but it’s actually Houston who has the higher probability of making the playoffs. A win could put them in the postseason with the AFC South title or Wild Card, but the Colts need to win or tie to have any hope of making the playoffs.

Playoff Picture

• The Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Browns have all clinched AFC playoff berths. The Chiefs and Browns have nothing to play for other than seeding.
• In the NFC the 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, and Rams have all secured a trip to the postseason. There are 2 spots remaining for 6 teams trying to make the playoffs.
• Miami and Buffalo have playoff implications, but that game is on Sunday night.
• Jacksonville is likely going to need to win to make the playoffs. Otherwise they’ll need help.
• The Cowboys best path to clinching the NFC East is by beating the Commanders.
  • Eagles need to win to clinch the AFC East, but need the Boys to lose as well.
• Tampa Bay’s easiest path to the playoffs is by winning their matchup against Carolina.
  • Somehow the Falcons will make the playoffs if they beat the Saints, and Tampa loses.
  • Conversely, the Saints make the playoffs with a win and a Tampa loss.
• Seahawks need to win or tie AND get some help.
• A Packers win gets them in the playoffs.

Backup QBs who are Starting

• Sam Darnold for the 49ers
• Jeff Driskel for the Browns
• Carson Wentz for the Rams
• Blaine Gabbert for the Chiefs

Over the last decade, QBs in these situations have not frequently produced fantasy outings over 20 points, and I haven’t found a single one who was the highest scoring QB on the slate. Davis Webb came close for the Giants last year, but he was QB3 with 22.1 fantasy points.

• Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. This will be a popular combo. The Cowboys play at the same time as the Eagles, so they have every reason to play to win and lock up the 2 seed. Washington has continued to bleed production to the WR position. The Commanders CBs are not to be feared and are banged up anyway. Additionally, it is quite possible for Lamb to overtake Tyreek Hill in receiving yards and TDs and finish the year as WR1.
• Trevor Lawrence with Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, or Parker Washington. As a group, the Titans are banged up in their secondary. They have also been middle of the road in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position over the last month, but on the season they have continued to be bad against outside WRs. While the return of Kirk is attractive, especially at his DK price tag of 3K, the best matchup here is Calvin Ridley or Zay Jones on the outside. Parker Washington would return to WR4 if Jones and Kirk return.
  • I’m not opposed to running it back with Deandre Hopkins and the contract incentives he carries. The Titans are committed to DHop for at least one more year, so it’s in their best interest to keep him happy.
• Tyrod Taylor with Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, or Darren Waller. This is a real interesting situation to me. While the Eagles are going to play their starters and try to beat up on the Gmen, there’s a chance they’ll be scoreboard watching at the same time. If the Cowboys end up being up big around halftime, there’s a huge chance that the Eagles pull their starters. However, the surprising loss to the Cardinals last week may be fresh in Eagles coaches’ and players’ minds, and therefore they may want to get back to the habit of winning on the eve of the playoffs. Either way, this Eagles secondary is one to target. The Eagles have given up the most fantasy points to WRs this season. They’ve been a little better lately, but we just saw what Kyler Murray and his receiving core did to this defense. Tyrod is going to test this defense as well. Slayton has been receiving some deep targets, and both Robinson and Waller’s target share has increased with Taylor under center.
• Nick Mullens with Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison. Detroit has said that their starters will play, but the chances of the Lions moving up in playoff seeding is minimal. I expect that starters will be pulled at some point. The Vikings have a slim chance of making the post season, something like 10%, but they need to win in order to do it. The Lions are the second worst team over the last 4 weeks against WRs.
• Justin Fields with DJ Moore and/or Cole Kmet. What will Chicago do with their draft picks this year? Caleb Williams? Marvin Harrison, Jr? Drake Maye? They can draft Harrison, a new QB and trade Fields, or package the #1 pick for other picks to address their needs. Why does any of this matter for Sunday? Because Fields is going to play the whole game against the Packers. The Bears haven’t beaten the Pack in some time. A win here likely knocks Green Bay out of the playoffs and gives the Bears and potential trading partners further evaluation of Fields. Over the last 4 weeks, the Packers are the 4th worst team vs WRs and the 7th worst vs QBs. The Packers are also dealing with some defensive injuries.
  • I’m also into Jordan Love and his incentives on the other side. The problem is which pass catcher as none are ideal against this significantly improved defense. Both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are dealing with injuries and have been limited participants at practice this week. Given the magnitude of this game, it would surprise me if both don’t suit up. Watson has a tough matchup on the perimeter against CB Jaylon Johnson, but he has shown the ability to overcome tough matchups with his deep route running ability. Additionally, Johnson hasn’t been practicing this week as he is dealing with a shoulder issue. Reed will have a more advantageous matchup out of the slot against Kyler Gordon, and Romeo Doubs will have a better matchup against CB Tyrique Stevenson. Additionally, Aaron Jones had one of his best weeks of the season against the Bears back in week 1, but that was a much different defense he faced.

One-Offs

• Rashid Shaheed. Atlanta plays zone at high rate and Shaheed performs better against it. This should be a competitive affair as both teams need the win.
• A Seattle WR. The Cardinals CBs continue to be below average in NFL ranking. Tyler Lockett has historically done well against this team, but I wouldn’t dismiss DK in this matchup either.
  • Trey McBride would be my preferred run back if skinny stacking this game. He has a beatable matchup against Devin Bush.
• Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, or Davis Allen. While the Rams don’t have much to play for, a win will likely give them a higher seed in the playoffs. Nacua is going to get his rookie record, but I don’t know how far beyond 4 and 29 he goes. Atwell is the player who likely sees more of the field in the later stages of this game, or if McVay elects to sit his starters, which he is already doing with his QB. Allen will likely see an increased role as well, and Wentz has a history (think Wentz and Ertz) of targeting TEs. It also helps that the Niners are the 3rd worst team over the last month against TEs, and they’re likely resting defensive starters.
• Pierre Strong. The Browns will not risk Hunt nor Ford in a meaningless game. Strong isn’t all that talented, but he should see plenty of volume in this matchup. He is but $4600 on DraftKings, and his ownership should be higher because of it.
  • As an aside, don’t play Joe Mixon in this game. The Bengals have the option to cut him this offseason so long as he doesn’t get injured on the field. He ain’t playing.
• Rachaad White. Statistically speaking, the Panthers defense has been much improved over the last month, but that is largely fueled by their 9 – 7 win against the Falcons 3 weeks ago and by the Jags win last week where they faced almost zero opposition. The Bucs basically have to win. Travis Etienne went for over 100 rushing yards last week against Carolina, Aaron Jones had 127 the week before that.
  • I know Baker has some incentives here, but teams have been electing to run on Carolina. Evans or Godwin could have good days, and one likely will, but 300 and 3 will be tough for Baker considering the low pace of play expected in this matchup, and that there is only one football to go around.

Where am I Going?

• Fields stacks
• Tyrod stacks
• I want Lamb in as many lineups as I can get him.
• The Jags are interesting, and the possible return of Kirk will likely make him mega-chalk. I’m going to have to wait for more information.
• I really like getting to Rachaad White.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.