DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 16

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 16 (Christmas Eve) breakdown! Week 16 was okay, the 4 o’clock window really saved me in both DFS and seasonal. We only have 9 games for the Sunday slate as both Saturday and Christmas Day games are in play. At this time of year, I like to begin to pay attention to teams and players who are incentivized to perform well. For players that could mean contract incentives should they achieve a certain amount of yards, catches, rushing attempts, or TDs. While it might be a tad early to dive into those, it isn’t too early to begin looking at teams who might be incentivized by potential playoff berths, home-field advantages or potential draft positions in 2024.

Before we get into that though, here’s the review of week 15’s ownership numbers:

Ownership seemed a little skewed, higher or lower, for many of these players. However, ownership helped to determine a few things. For example, I tried pivoting off the Jets where I could. I faded Antonio Gibson, Matthew Stafford, and Okonkwo. The Gibson ownership numbers I’m a little perturbed by, but I’m also not surprised he came in lower because if I could discern that he isn’t good at football, then others can too.

Week 16 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Justin Jefferson  –  27.8%
2. Ty Chandler  –  27.3%
3. Jets  –  23.6%
4. Trey McBride  –  22.6%
5. Devin Singletary  –  22.5%
6. Rachaad White  –  21.7%
7. Breece Hall  –  21.7%
8. DJ Moore  –  19.1%
9. Nick Mullens  –  18.9%
10. Deandre Hopkins  –  17.9%
11. Jayden Reed  –  17.6%
12. Justin Fields  –  17.6%
13. Tony Pollard  –  16.2%
14. Travis Etienne  –  15.2%
15. Calvin Ridley  –  15.1%
16. Bijan Robinson  –  14.8%
17. Garrett Wilson  – 14.6%
18. Tyler Lockett  –  14.4%
19. Aaron Jones  –  14.3%
20. Jonathan Taylor  –  14.2%

Notes:

• Props to the DFS sites for having Jonathan Taylor’s price high enough. He would have been super chalk if he had a price tag under 5K.
• The Texans seemed to announce loud and clear that Singletary is the lead back in Houston. He had 26 carries in week 15 while the other Texans RBs combined for 2. The price is nice, but the Browns defense is a top 10 unit against the run.
• I know the Jets defense is good and Howell is probably going to throw an INT or 3, but 23.6%?

Game Stacks

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I humbly submit this matchup with the one caveat that you probably shouldn’t expect another 381 yards and 4 TDs out of Baker, but the Jags are the 2nd worst team against QBs over the last month.

Don’t look now, but in Tampa’s first year after the retirement of Tom Brady, the Bucs are fighting to win their division. A win against the Jags would go a long way toward making that a reality.

Rachaad White has seen a price increase, but it’s still probably too low considering his workload in this offense. Over the last 4 weeks, Jacksonville is the 4th worst team vs RBs.

In their last 4 matchups the Jaguars have allowed Michael Pittman, Jonathan Mingo, Drake London, and Dontayvion Wicks to have big days against them. All are primary outside WRs just like Mike Evans. Jacksonville employs zone coverage at top 5 rate in the NFL, Evans is one of the best in football in terms yards per route run against zone. A deep shot or a few are likely in line for Evans against the beatable CB duo of Tyson Campbell (who is dealing with a quadriceps injury) and Darious Williams.

The Jaguars, at 8-6, have the same record as 2 other teams in their division. From a playoff probability making standpoint, the Jags chances of making the playoffs climb to 85% with a win here and are reduced to 50% with a loss. Trevor Lawrence has yet to practice as he sits in concussion protocol, but many in the fantasy industry expect him to play, and the Jags really could use him in their fight to make the postseason.

I’m not too interested in going the Travis Etienne route here. Vita Vea has been back at practice for the Bucs. This is a significant boost to run stopping ability of Tampa. I could also see the Bucs stacking the box if Lawrence sits.

The Bucs have been a middling group against WRs and TEs, however, therefore I have no qualms running a Bucs stack back with Calvin Ridley or Evan Engram. Parker Washington and Jamaal Agnew make for decent punts as Christian Kirk continues to be sidelined and Zay Jones is likely to miss with a hamstring injury.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

A lot of ownership will gravitate toward this matchup which features a total of 47.5. The Lions sit at 10-4 and are in the running for a first round bye. If they win and the 49ers lose to Baltimore on Monday night, then the Lions will be right there. The Vikings are 7-7 and are battling for their playoff lives. A win would give them a 75% chance of making the postseason.

The Lions are allowing production to WRs at a top 10 rate. Last week Mullens showed a nice connection with both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. JJ lead the team with 10 targets and Addison hauled in all 6 of his to eclipse 100 yards and nab 2 scores.

With Alexander Mattison probably out, and with his performance against the Bengals last week, Ty Chandler is going to be hard to ignore. The Lions are one of the better teams in football against the run. Stacking Chandler with Mullens, if you were to choose to go that route, might make you a little more unique.

It’s becoming tougher to ignore Jahmyr Gibbs and his big play making potential. Just keep in mind that David Montgomery continues to see more carries. Against Denver in week 15, the Lions RBs had 32 total opportunities. This will probably come down to who finds the end zone, but the Vikings have been one of the best teams in football against the run recently.

Minnesota is also decent against WRs and TEs. That being said, Amon-Ra and LaPorta shouldn’t be ignored. The Vikings are better against the run than the pass, so a big day could be in play for a Detroit receiver should Minnesota prove capable of shutting down one of the best rushing attacks in football.

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

The 51 total is going to attract players to this matchup, but for me, everything rest with the availability of Tyreek Hill.  Dallas utilizes man coverage, Tyfreek is top tier against man coverage so long as he is healthy. We don’t really need to worry about any one matchup here, we just need to worry if Hill will get the opportunity. Hill didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he did get in a limited session on Thursday.

Win or lose, both teams are still likely to make the playoffs, but both are fighting for home advantage and perhaps a first-round bye.

What has me hesitant about this matchup, from a stacking perspective, however, is that not too many are talking about how good the Dolphins defense has become. In the last month, they have been a top 5 unit against QBs, WRs, and TEs. They also sit just outside the top 10 against RBs. Dak Prescott and company hit a bump in the road against a Bills team that was banged up in their secondary. Now the Boys get a Miami secondary that’s been quite good since the return of CB Jalen Ramsay. The offenses have shown the ability to have big games, it just wouldn’t surprise if this one sort of disappoints.

The Cowboys defense on the other hand has not been the stout unit that they were in the first half of the season. In the last month they are surrendering the 12th most points to QBs, 9th most to RBs, 11th most to WRs. They are the best against TEs, but I’m pretty sure Miami doesn’t have any of those anyway.

• Justin Fields with DJ Moore. The Cardinals have been better of late against both QBs and WRs, but I wouldn’t actually call it good. They have been the worst team against RBs, which I’m thinking might translate nicely to the running-prone Fields. Also, they way he finishes this year could heavily influence what the Bears do in the offseason, so Fields should be plenty motivated to do well. Moore will get matchups against CBs Antonio Hamilton and Starling Thomas. Hamilton is decent but Thomas is Pro Football Focus’ 111th ranked CB…out of 119.
  • The Bears DST has looked real good ever since the acquisition of Montez Sweat. I’ll be firing them up in DFS contests again this week as they take on the Cardinals.
• Bijan Robinson. The fact that he failed significantly last week has me liking him in this matchup with the Colts, who are allowing the 4th most PPR points to RBs in 2023, and they’ve been the 3rd worst team against RBs in the last month.
  • The Colts DST is in play for me as they are generating pressure and causing turnovers. They could make life difficult for Art Smith’s 6-8 Falcons. Speaking of being incentivized…Smith should be so if he wants to keep his job. Start getting the ball to your stars please, sir.
• Chuba Hubbard. He has emerged as the clear primary back for Carolina. The Packers are yielding the 8th most PPR points to RBs over the last month. Just be careful as neither team really has anything to play for, except maybe a higher draft pick.
• Garrett Wilson. The Commanders are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs. Wilson continues to be a favorite target of Zach Wilson, who hasn’t practiced yet this week as he is dealing with a concussion. I would hope that Wilson is able to play, but CBs Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller are a pair of the worst CBs in football. I’d like to think that even my mom could get Garrett Wilson the ball here.
• DK Metcalf. On that final drive against the Eagles, Metcalf showed that if you just throw him the ball, he can go it almost anywhere. The Titans secondary is banged up and also not good to begin with. CB Tre Avery, an undrafted free agent, has been forced into service on the perimeter. His numbers are not good, and he is the one I would be targeting with DK on Sunday if I were the Seahawks. I am even more interested in going that route if Tyler Lockett continues to have a higher ownership projection. I currently have DK at 9%.
  • The Seahawks can be had on the ground. Tyjae Spears has had at least 10 touches in 3 straight games. With Derrick Henry likely to be gone via free agency, the Titans may want to continue to see what they have in Spears.
• David Njoku. He’s established a nice rapport with Joe Flacco and the Houston Texans have surrendered the 4th most PPR points to TEs this year.
  • The Texans DST could be sneaky this year has Cleveland has shown a propensity for turning the ball over.

Where am I Going?

• I do like that Tampa and Jacksonville environment.
• Justin Fields.
• Tyreek, but I may mostly fade that matchup.
• Might fade both Chandler and Singletary.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.