Is this knockout-round qualifying match between Ireland and New Zealand simply too close to call?

A lot of predictions have been made. Predictions to suit everyone’s emotions and beliefs for the Group A and Group B quarterfinals. Some people say Ireland will choke, as they have never made it past the QFs. But this sort of ‘history’ only matters if you’re a player and you let it. And if you let it matter it can work both ways – it can be a motivator or a source of arrogance or weakness. (But really, do you think anyone in the Irish team is thinking ‘well, we’ve never made it out of the QFs so that’s going to make it harder to win?’)

Meanwhile for the All Blacks, it’s a question of who shows up ready for match day 23; Who is in peak condition physically, mentally, and emotionally on the day?

There are many interrelated factors that will influence this match, like an All Blacks forward pack playing like possessed beasts for 80 minutes, for example, but one of the biggest factors that will determine the final outcome will be the effectiveness of the New Zealand bench. Specifically, the backs. The right combination of backs coming off the bench will be the difference-maker.

The All Black matchday 23 is unlikely to have few, if any, surprises. I’m assuming it will be a 5-3 split, with the necessity to recharge the pack with five forwards. That leaves three spots. I’m thinking the three back bums on the bench will be 3 of these 4 players: Damian McKenzie, Anton Leinert-Brown, Leicester Fainga’anuku, and Cam Roigard.

It’s hard to believe Foster and co will not select Roigard. The Irish will have analysed his play plenty of times, but that’s not the same as actually playing him, and Jamison Gibson-Park, Connor Murray and the Irish loose forwards will find him challenging.

The same can be said about McKenzie, who the Irish did not play in the 2021 series in NZ or the 2019 match in Dublin. They will have a strategy to combat the electrifying McKenzie, but he is a game changer and can make something from nothing. Plus, he’s in top form.

Damian McKenzie of New Zealand is tackled by Gaston Mieres of Uruguay during the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between New Zealand and Uruguay at Parc Olympique on October 05, 2023 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Paul Harding/Getty Images)

I’d be happy to see either Lienert-Brown or Fainga’anuku as the third back-bencher. Lienert-Brown has significantly more experience when compared to Fainga’anuku, with close to 70 Test appearances since 2016. He has 2019 World Cup experience, is in great form, and can provide flexibility and stability in the backline. Fainga’anuku has been in awesome form all season, is a powerful runner, gets stuck-in like a forward, is highly capable of turn-overs, and, quite simply, extremely hard to take down – which often requires several opposing players to stop him – and in the process he creates space for his teammates.

If required to choose one over the other, Foster should opt for ALB, because of his ability to play either mid-field position and his stronger defensive play compared to Fainga’anuku’s. Ireland would put a lot of pressure on less-experienced Fainga’anuku (as he has shown some cracks in his defensive work), and ALB has teamed up with McKenzie in dozens of matches for the Waikato Chiefs and the All Blacks. Coupled with his stability, the match-day ‘connection’ with McKenzie will be pivotal in breaking the Irish defence and enable the likes of Telea, Jordan and McKenzie to unleash their X-factors skills.

All that said, part of me would also like to see Fainga’anuku come on for Rieko Ioane – possibly moving Ioane over to wing, but it is too late now to be messing with combinations.

If there are not true “impact” players coming on from the All Blacks bench, the Ireland team will simply be too good to let a lead slip away over the final quarter. But the free, somewhat unpredictable, running by the bench backs – played at pace – will be the critical, necessary difference between the teams. It’s what NZ does best, and in a knockout match it’s all about making hard-earned opportunities and then turning these into points on the board.

Ireland consistently play incredible, relentless, high pressure rugby for 80 minutes. But if thrown off their game (especially in the first quarter and last quarters) by fast-paced running rugby, the Irish will be thrown off their game and find themselves in uncharted waters. How will they cope in the final twenty minutes? Could this be the time they start to doubt themselves because history makes a rude and inconvenient appearance in their heads? That’s what the All Blacks will have to create.

That scenario will be fascinating to watch. And it may be the best chance for the All Blacks to get through to the semifinals.

But if that kind of bench is not selected, then New Zealand is destined to finish the match as the losing side, and the Foster era, will finish with the same lessons still not learned, even after four years.