1. BEST: Sustained quality
Paul Goldschmidt has been consistently excellent throughout his 14-year career.
Nine seasons with a batting average of .290 or better, peaking at .321 in 2015. Seven years with more than 30 homers, topping out at a league-leading total of 36 in 2013. Four times reaching triple digits for runs batted in. And, of course, the winner of the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award in 2022.
The case could be made, in fact, that Goldschmidt is the most consistently excellent hitter in the majors today.
I established these four standards: 140 games played, 20 homers, 80 runs batted in, and a .280 batting average. It’s fair to say that anybody who reaches or passes all four of these benchmarks in a given season is a solidly dependable performer.
Goldschmidt has passed these four tests in eight different seasons, beginning in 2012 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and most recently in 2022 with his current employer, the St. Louis Cardinals.
No other active player has matched his record. Here are the five active batters who have met the 140/20/80/.280 standards at least five times, with their first and last occurrences in parentheses:
1. Paul Goldschmidt, 8 seasons (first: 2012, last: 2022)
2. Freddie Freeman, 7 seasons (first: 2013, last: 2023)
3. Nolan Arenado, 6 seasons (first: 2015, last: 2022)
3. Joey Votto, 6 seasons (first: 2008, last: 2017)
5. Jose Abreu, 5 seasons (first: 2014, last: 2019)
But Goldschmidt still has quite a way to go to match the all-time record.
Henry Aaron simultaneously reached the 140/20/80/.280 milestones in 15 different seasons between 1955 and 1970, a period of sustained excellence unmatched by any hitter in big-league history. Here are the top 10:
1. Henry Aaron, 15 seasons (first: 1955, last: 1970)
2. Willie Mays, 13 seasons (first: 1954, last: 1966)
3. Miguel Cabrera, 12 seasons (first: 2004, last: 2016)
4. Barry Bonds, 12 seasons (first: 1990, last: 2004)
4. Lou Gehrig, 12 seasons (first: 1927, last: 1938)
4. Albert Pujols, 12 seasons (first: 2001, last: 2012)
7. Vladimir Guerrero, 11 seasons (first: 1998, last: 2010)
7. Eddie Murray, 11 seasons (first: 1977, last: 1993)
7. Mel Ott, 11 seasons (first: 1929, last: 1942)
7. Alex Rodriguez, 11 seasons (first: 1996, last: 2007)
2. WORST: Leaky bullpens
A lot of things are going wrong for the Chicago White Sox, who lost 15 of their 18 games during the first three weeks of the 2024 season.
I intend to focus here on only one of their deficiencies, their miserably bad bullpen.
White Sox relief pitchers were directly responsible for six losses in the early phase of the 2024 schedule. They also blew five saves. And they allowed 16 inherited runners to score. Those are horrible figures for a period as brief as three weeks.
They’re even worse when added together, which is precisely what I did.
I combined each club’s totals of relief losses, blown saves, and inherited runners who scored, yielding an informal misery index for bullpens.
The White Sox had the worst score, 27 points over the three-week period, though the Marlins were close behind at 25. It comes as no surprise that Miami also got off to a terrible start this year, with only four wins against 15 losses.
These are the worst bullpen scores so far this year:
And the best bullpen? That distinction belongs to the Seattle Mariners, who had no blown saves, just one loss by a relief pitcher, and six inherited runners who scored. The resulting total of seven points doesn’t deserve to be called a misery index at all.
3. GRAPH: Declining competition
The major leagues are getting less competitive.
Here’s how I know: I had to develop a statistical indicator — let’s call it a competition score — for another project I was working on. It measured how closely matched the clubs were in a given league during a given season.
I don’t want to get too technical about my formula, which generated scores on a 100-point scale. This is what’s important: A high mark indicates that a league ‘s teams were tightly bunched in terms of records and run differentials; a low score is a sign of wide gaps between clubs.
I averaged the scores for each decade, which generally consisted of two leagues per season for 10 years (though the 2020s, of course, ran only through 2023). There has clearly been a steady decline in competitiveness since the 1980s:
There isn’t room here to fully discuss the decline in big-league competitiveness, though it shouldn’t come as any real surprise in this Era of Tanking.
We’ll be talking below about the 1984 season. Just look back to that year to see the contrast with today.
The Tigers ran away with the American League pennant in ’84 with a winning percentage of .642. Every other club was tightly slotted between .596 and .407, a truly competitive situation.
But a chasm had developed by 2023, with four clubs finishing above .610 and another four wallowing below .380. The current gap between haves and have-nots is the worst since the 1930s, which is very bad news indeed.
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4. QUIZ: Lefties in the pen
I’ve decided to keep things simple this week. The topic of the quiz is outstanding left-handed relief pitchers, and I’m offering the same four choices after all five questions. It couldn’t get easier than that.
Scroll to the bottom of the page for the answers.
1. Who was named by this newsletter as the best lefty reliever for the three-year period from 2020 through 2022?
2. Which lefty accumulated the most saves during the six seasons from 2018 through 2023?
A. Aroldis Chapman
B. Josh Hader
C. Brad Hand
D. Will Smith
3. Which left-handed reliever piled up the most strikeouts over the three seasons after the pandemic (2021-2023)?
A. Aroldis Chapman
B. Josh Hader
C. Brad Hand
D. Will Smith
4. Which lefty who made at least 300 relief appearances in the past decade (2014-2023) kept opponents to the lowest batting average?
A. Aroldis Chapman
B. Josh Hader
C. Brad Hand
D. Will Smith
5. Which left-handed reliever was torched for four runs in one-third of an inning in mid-April, momentarily driving his 2024 ERA above 9.00?
A. Aroldis Chapman
B. Josh Hader
C. Brad Hand
D. Will Smith
5. LEADERBOARD: Getting the bunt down
Bunting Is becoming a lost art.
Big-league batters laid down more than 1,500 sacrifice hits in each of the first 12 seasons of the 21st century (2000-2011). That number dipped to an all-time low of 390 by 2022, and it increased only slightly to 429 in 2023.
It’s time, I think, to hail the recent practitioners of this disappearing skill.
Juan Pierre played center and left field for six franchises, primarily the Marlins, Dodgers, and Rockies, between 2000 and 2013. He was speedy — three times leading his league in stolen bases — and he could bunt. He laid down 167 sacrifice hits, the largest number for any major leaguer in the 21st century.
Here are the century’s 10 sacrifice-hit leaders, as tabulated by Baseball Reference.
1. Juan Pierre (2000-2013), SH 167
2. Omar Vizquel (2000-2012), SH 125
3. Luis Castillo (2000-2010), SH 113
4. Livan Hernandez (2000-2012), SH 112
5. Clayton Kershaw (2008-2023), SH 110
6. David Eckstein (2001-2010), SH 106
6. Roy Oswalt (2001-2013), SH 106
8. Elvis Andrus (2009-2023), SH 104
8. Jack Wilson (2001-2012), SH 104
10. Tom Glavine (2000-2008), SH 92
It’s interesting to note that four of these players (Hernandez, Kershaw, Oswalt, and Glavine) were pitchers. Only two of the 10 are still active: Kershaw as a Dodger and Andrus as a free agent who hopes to hook on with somebody after being cut by the Diamondbacks in spring training.
6. TRACKING THE BEST: ’84 Tigers
It had to happen sometime.
The 1984 Tigers, the best major-league team since 1961, finally lost their first game during the week of April 16-22, 1984.
Detroit was beaten by the Royals, 5-2, on April 19, but rebounded to sweep a three-game series with the White Sox. Detroit’s 12-1 record on the morning of April 23 put it 4.5 games ahead of second-place Toronto in the American League East.
Shortstop Alan Trammell, a future Hall of Famer, was leading the league with a .400 batting average through 13 games. “Everything is going right for us,” he said. “I’m just trying to make things happen like everyone else.”
7. TRACKING THE WORST: ’62 Mets
The 1962 Mets, the losingest team of baseball’s Modern Era, lived up to their billing by dropping all five games between April 16 and 22.
The worst loss of the week came on April 18, 15-5 at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Mets committed three errors, with starter Sherman Jones and three relievers surrendering 18 hits (including four homers).
The Mets had a record of 0-9 on the morning of April 23. They were already 9.5 games behind the National League’s first-place club, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who had broken to a 10-0 start.
Mets manager Casey Stengel refused to buckle under. “We gotta get over that hill and win one,” he told reporters.
8. QUIZ ANSWERS: Lefties in the pen
This was a trick quiz. All five answers were identical: B. Josh Hader. Here are the details:
1. Hader took first place in my rankings of the 57 left-handers who made at least 70 relief appearances during the 2020-2022 span. Chapman finished fifth, Hand 15th, and Smith 18th.
2. Hader posted 165 saves for the Brewers and Padres in the 2018-2023 period. Chapman was second among lefties with 117.
3. Hader had 268 strikeouts from 2021 through 2023, edging fellow lefty Tanner Scott (who wasn’t listed as a possible answer) by four. Chapman was third in this category with 243 K’s.
4. The batting average against Hader was .156 in 349 relief appearances since his 2017 debut. Chapman was the runner-up for the decade at .169.
5. Hader, who now pitches for the Astros, surrendered a walk, a wild pitch, and four consecutive hits to the Braves on April 15.
https://bestworst.substack.com/p/consistent-excellence-woeful-bullpens
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