DFS GPP and Ownership Breakdown: Week 17

Hey all, and welcome to the Week 17 breakdown! Week 16 was not kind to me in any way shape or form. I had some, but not a lot of Cooper nor Flacco, and I was lucky enough to be going up against Amari in my big money league with a trip to the finals on the line. In any event, we still have some time to make some DFS dollars, and here in week 17, we get a 13-game slate, much larger than anything we’ve had in a while. We should also be being paying attention to players, coaches, and teams who will be incentivized to perform well in the final weeks of the season.

Before we get into this week though, here’s the review of week 16’s ownership numbers:

• I figured Ty Chandler’s ownership would take a hit when it was announced that Alexander Mattison was going to play. I made a note of that in Discord, but as you can see the algorithm just didn’t have time to catch up.
• I’m happy with the rest. There’s a few that are off, but I’m noticing that it’s a trend from week to week. I’ll keep working to make them more accurate, but it’s just a reminder that they are a guide and not an exact science.

Week 17 GPP Ownership Report

These will change by Sunday. Join the Discord for updates, it’s free!

1. Christian McCaffrey  –  30.3%
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire  –  28.5%
3. Denver Broncos  –  24.5%
4. Rashee Rice  –  20%
5. Ezekiel Elliott  –  18.8%
6. Demario Douglas  –  17.9%
7. Deandre Hopkins  –  16.2%
8. Brandon Aiyuk  –  15.7%
9. Gerald Everett  –  14%
10. Brock Purdy  –  13.6%
11. Trey McBride  –  13.6%
12. Jalen Hurts  –  13.6%
13. Saquon Barkley  –  13.4%
14. George Kittle  –  13.1%
15. Devin Singletary  –  12.9%
16. Kyren Williams  –  12.8%
17. Wan’Dale Robinson  –  12.7%
18. Curtis Samuel  –  12.4%
19. Javonte Williams  –  12%
20. Chig Okonkwo  –  11.8%

Notes:

• With this being a 13 game slate, I expect these numbers to fluctuate, especially if we get some bigger news as we head into the weekend.
• I’m surprised that CMC projects to be that highly owned. If he stays that high, he may be a full fade for me.
• Be careful with CEH as he missed practice on Thursday with an illness. McKinnon is already out and Pacheco is in concussion protocol. La’Michal Perine, Deneric Prince, or Keontay Ingram could end up leading this backfield on Sunday.

Game Stacks

Just a note with this being a 13 gamer: it’s unlikely that stacking one matchup is the key to DFS success in week 17. I’ll likely have pieces of many of these games as opposed to double or triple stacking any one matchup.

San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders

With last week’s loss to the Ravens, the 49ers find themselves in a 3 way tie (record-wise) for first in the NFC. The 49ers need this win to keep up with or stay ahead of the Lions and Eagles. This game also features a total of 50 points, so Vegas expects some scoring here. There also might be some extra motivation for the 49ers depending on the results of the Cowboys/Lions matchup on Saturday.

The Commanders secondary continues to be one to attack. CB Benjamin St-Juste has allowed the most receiving yards out of any CB in football, and the rest of the group has helped to make this unit the 6th worst against the WR position over the last month. It make sense that the 49er pass catchers and Brock Purdy are attracting ownership.

Over their last 4 games, no team in the NFL is worse than the Commanders at stopping the run. CMC’s ownership makes sense for the matchup and situation, but he needs multiple scores and/or over 100 yards to pay off the salary and make the optimal lineup.

If you think this game goes toward the under, it may be because the 49ers are able to generate pressure against an offensive line that is dealing with injuries. Playing San Francisco’s DST is looking like a possible contrarian way to invest in this game.

The 49ers haven’t been all that great against QBs and the TE position. They have been decent against WRs though. As such, I’m more inclined to target Logan Thomas at 2.5% ownership than Curtis Samuel or Terry McLaurin at 10%.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

The Eagles currently sit in 2nd in the NFC but have the same record as the Niners. This matchup has a 48.5 total.

AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith draw exploitable matchups against CBs Kei’Trel Clark and Starling Thomas. Clark is Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked CB, and Thomas is worse, ranking 115th. I will be eyeing Jalen Hurts stacks on Sunday. DeVonta Smith is currently looking at sub 2% ownership while AJ Brown is only at 5.5% himself. From a salary perspective, Brown makes for an excellent pivot off the CMC chalk.

The only problem is that teams have been electing to run on Arizona. They are one of the worst teams in football against RBs over the last month. D’Andre Swift is in a good spot, but Philly tends to share the backfield with other RBs and Hurts likes to vulture rushing TDs. The 20 carries Swift got last week is a good sign though.

The Eagles defense continues to be bad against the pass, so I do think it’s possible for a Cardinal WR or Trey McBride to have a good day. McBride is the 2nd highest priced TE on the slate, but at $5900, it still might not be high enough.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

While the total for this one is not high (43), Baker and the Bucs did drop 250 and 3 TDs against them back in October. Also, see below for the incentives Baker gets for his performances, but he should be highly incentivized to get Tampa into the win column here. Both of these teams are fighting for their playoff lives, but the Bucs are sitting in the driver seat with the better record.

The Bucs secondary remains depleted due to injury. They are allowing production to WRs at a top 10 rate over the last 4 weeks. They also are 4th in highest rate of explosive pass plays allowed. Chris Olave won’t see any one corner, but he’ll be put in spots for success. Rashid Shaheed has seen an increase in his role as well. I currently have Olave at 11.5% ownership and Shaheed at 7%.

Derek Carr had 300 yards against the Rams last week, and he has 3 TD passes in each of the last 2 games. The Buccaneers have given up the 8th most fantasy points to QBs this season, but they have been better over the last month. Those games, however, were against a banged up Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Bryce Young.

No one will own Taysom Hill on Sunday. That scares me.

At $7800 Mike Evans will be less owned than many of his WR counterparts, including teammate Chris Godwin. Historically Evans has not done well against New Orleans, but he was typically battling CB Marshon Lattimore who won’t be on the field this time. I have Evans at 2% and Godwin at 6.7%.

Rachaad White’s ownership is down due to the tough matchup against the Saints run D. I have him at 5.6%. If he gets into the optimal lineup, it’s likely due to volume or receptions.

• Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers, OBJ, or Isaiah Likely. They made short work of a better team (IMO) in week 16. Lamar had 250 and 2 TDs plus 7 carries last week. The Dolphins defense has gotten better, and I do expect them to show up, but Lamar could steal the day if he has a rushing score or 2.
• Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp. First off, I feel like I keep getting this one wrong, so proceed with caution. The Saints, the Rams opponent last week, play man coverage at one of the highest rates in football. The Gmen’s secondary is also heavily man-based. Nacua specifically went HAM on the Saints man-based secondary in week 16. Nacua and Kupp will be squaring off against Deonte Banks and Adoree’ Jackson. Jackson is PFF’s 113th ranked CB and Banks is right there with him at 109. I have Kupp at 2% ownership and Nacua at 3.5%.
  • Also, Demarcus Robinson has found the end zone in each of the last 4 games.
• Rashee Rice. Over the last 4 weeks, Cincinnati comes in 4th in terms of allowing the most points to WRs. In the last month of games, Rice has had 9, 10, 9, and 12 targets.
• Zamir White. I expect him to come in higher than the 11% ownership I have him at. Josh Jacobs hasn’t been practicing, the Raiders threw for only 62 yards last week while White had 145 yards rushing, and the Colts are the second worst team against the RB position over the last 4 weeks.
• Marvin Mims. The Chargers are not great against the pass, and Stidham will likely have at least one deep shot to Mims. Courtland Sutton may miss this game as well.
• The Bears DST. The Falcons have multiple injuries to their offensive line which could make things difficult against Montez Sweat and company.

Where am I Going?

• Austin Ekeler. Brandon Staley is gone, the Broncos are bad vs the run, Ekeler won’t be owned (3%), and over 100 yards rushing and receiving along with 2 scores is going to put him in a position to earn some more money. If the Chargers don’t help him in this regard, he’s likely gone at the end of the season.
• Hurts with Smith or Brown
• Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield stacks
• DHop, Rice, Mims
• Singletary and/or Schultz
• Zamir White

Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00.