For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Last year, I noted in this space that I had to double-check the Diamondbacks’ ZiPS projections, as the computer seemed surprisingly optimistic about Arizona’s outlook. It turned out to be a little too optimistic, though I was wrong about the relative strength of the Giants and Padres, who both finished below the Snakes in the standings (though you can quibble about how good the Padres actually were in 2023).

Naturally, since ZiPS had a sunny view of Arizona then, it’s certainly not going to be less sunny now that a lot of the things the system liked have came to pass. Looking at the 2024 projections as a whole, they actually feels very Cardinals-y, and not in the sense of the 2023 Cardinals. The projections from top to bottom are quite steady, in the manner of a good Cards team, with a lot of positional flexibility on the roster and a solidly above-average projected defense from bow to stern.

ZiPS liked Corbin Carroll enough going into last season to make him its top prospect (by a hair) over Gunnar Henderson, and his Rookie of the Year campaign, which saw him in the MVP conversation during the first half, didn’t exactly change the computer’s mind. The relatively low numbers on the depth chart come down to Carroll’s contributions being spread out among all three outfield positions. Of the timeshare candidates, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Alek Thomas both project as solidly average contributors, and ZiPS thinks Jake McCarthy, though down from his 2022 big league performance, is at least a decent stopgap.

ZiPS sees Christian Walker as the best defensive first baseman in baseball among actual starters and isn’t projecting a meaningful decline for Ketel Marte just yet. The computer is in on Jordan Lawlar, though it’s less enthusiastic about Geraldo Perdomo. Eugenio Suárez’s projection is disappointing, as ZiPS sees his glove falling off more than his bat bouncing bat, but he should at least give the Diamondbacks what they had hoped to get from Evan Longoria (and didn’t). Gabriel Moreno shined in his first stint in the majors as the unquestioned starter at catcher.

Pitchers

Zac Gallen has long been a ZiPS favorite and while he fell off in the Cy Young race (with Blake Snell nearly sweeping), he’s an undoubted ace and The Guy in Arizona. Merrill Kelly was arguably nearly as good as Gallen in 2023 and projects to remain a fine assistant to the ace starter. The question is who comes next, a quandary that plagued the Snakes as they prepared for the playoffs. One very good answer is the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez. While the Diamondbacks might have felt burned by how the Madison Bumgarner contract worked out, E-Rod projects significantly better now than Bumgarner did at the time of his signing. In that last deal, the Diamondbacks made the mistake of paying for a player’s past rather than his future, as Bumgarner’s strikeout rate and quality-of-contact metrics were already slipping.

The E-Rod signing serves to push Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth starter spot. He was a bit disappointing during the regular season in 2023, but he was sterling in most of his playoff appearances, which ZiPS does take into consideration. And his rookie year wasn’t quite the disappointment that his ERA/FIP make it out to be; if you want to bet on a bounce-back season, bet on the otherwise competent pitcher who had a freaky home run rate. Like Corbin Burnes at a similar point in his career or Andrew Heaney a few years ago, these players tend to regress heavily toward more normal home run rates.

That just leaves the fifth starter, and the D-backs have enough talent hanging around to decide on that spot on the fly, with a number of plausible options. Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry have similar projections, and ZiPS remains positive on Slade Cecconi. The computer is also a huge fan of Yu-Min Lin, who held his own at Double-A at just 19, though he doesn’t possess the big fastball that scouts like, so he’s far from a sure thing.

Arizona’s bullpen was middle of the road in 2023 and ZiPS projects that to continue. Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel have projections that put them head-and-shoulders above the rest of the relief corp, but otherwise the ‘pen, while deep, projects as serviceable rather than stellar. At least there are no projected disasters currently expected to get playing time, which should serve to keep the late innings away from any nasty surprises.

Overall, the Diamondbacks project a little better than in 2023, in the 84-88 win range. It took some good fortune to get to the World Series last year, fortune that promptly abandoned them once they got there. But this remains a solid team that is poised to contend for a Wild Card spot, though it would still be a major upset if they made the Dodgers shake in their shoes, especially after the Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto signings.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

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