For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Miami Marlins.

Batters

While the Marlins’ lineup, 15th in the NL in runs scored in 2023, didn’t technically prevent them from making the playoffs, it would be dangerous to expect that happy circumstance to repeat in the future. Winning nine more games than your Pythagorean record is not something that can be counted on to continue; Miami had a good bullpen, but bullpen quality actually correlates poorly with one-run record or Pythagorean overperformance.

What this means is that the Marlins need to search for more offensive talent. Though the depth chart image has them safely above replacement at all positions, the offensive output just isn’t very exciting in most of those, with no one hitter on the roster projecting with even a 20% chance of a 140 OPS+. Luis Arraez is terrific, and you’ve got to love such a throwback, but he’ll be hard-pressed to better his .354/.393/.469 line. Just being extraordinarily lucky with the injuries probably doesn’t get the Marlins above 12th or so in the NL in runs scored, and they have to figure out how to replace Jorge Soler’s 2023 performance — which, again, still didn’t suffice to get them out of last place in runs scored in the NL. And none of the prospects who are good possibilities to provide oomph in the majors someday, like Joe Mack, Kemp Alderman, or Jacob Berry, are likely going to have any impact on the lineup this year.

ZiPS is optimistic, however, on Xavier Edwards. While it didn’t come together for him in his small cup of coffee in the majors, cutting nearly two-thirds of your strikeout rate, as he did in the minors, is exceedingly rare, especially since his walk rate improved, too. Contact is especially important for Edwards, since he has the speed to make it matter. I’d be inclined to stick him in center field, bump Jazz Chisholm Jr. to left coming off his turf toe, and see what happens. I don’t think the Marlins will actually do that, which is too bad, because that domino effect would also result in less playing time for Avisaíl García, who has little justifiable reason to be on the roster at all at this point. If I were the Marlins, I’d also be inclined to sign Matt Chapman and stick either Jake Burger or Josh Bell at DH, but I don’t make the decisions for Miami, and they certainly don’t let me spend the money.

Pitchers

And here, we get to the primary reason why the Marlins played some extra baseball in October rather than slumming it with the Nationals and Pirates. It’s a testament to the quality and upside of the rotation that they still have a rotation somewhere around the top five even after losing Sandy Alcantara for 2024 to Tommy John surgery and trading Pablo López before last season. Jesús Luzardo is a legitimate ace-type starter, and Eury Pérez doesn’t need to make a big step forward to join him. Edward Cabrera retains that kind of upside if he can iron out some of those remaining command issues. Braxton Garrett is rapidly building up his Crafty Southpaw© sizzle reel, and Trevor Rogers remains interesting if he can, by some off-chance, stay healthy. And there’s depth, too: Max Meyer is returning from Tommy John surgery, and ZiPS already sees Dax Fulton and Patrick Monteverde as viable emergency fill-ins. (I wouldn’t oversell the chances of Sixto Sánchez starting another game in the majors given that he’s basically lost three years of development time, but I can’t not mention his continual existence, even if it’s more likely he stays in relief.)

ZiPS projects the bullpen to be in the top third of the league, possibly in the top five. Tanner Scott was on my breakouts list last year, so I’m not going to sour on him after he pitches very well, cutting out half his walk rate. ZiPS sees A.J. Puk’s strikeout bump as real given his 15% swinging-strike-against rate and a contact rate falling under 70% (meaning he turns the average hitter into Javier Báez). That gives the Marlins two of the league’s hardest throwing elite lefty relievers, and Andrew Nardi projects nearly as well as them. I’d hate to be facing Miami in the late innings without some right-handed power coming up. Add in Steven Okert, and ZiPS thinks the top four Marlins relievers are all lefties.

The computer isn’t as excited about the righties, but it does like Anthony Maldonado and Anthony Bender and has an unhealthy fixation on Luarbert Arias. The projections are more bearish on relievers like Calvin Faucher and George Soriano. Another righty in the pen might be profitable for the Marlins, but if there’s only so much money available — or, at least, the team is going to pretend that’s the case — I’d much prefer they spend on offense rather than worrying about who their third or fourth righty in the seventh inning is.

So where are the Marlins right now? Probably somewhere around .500, but with a precarious lineup that could use some attention.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

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