For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

This set of batters probably looks familiar because, well, apart from the Luis Arraez trade to the Marlins, this is pretty much the same collection of hitters the Twins have had available the last several years. Edouard Julien isn’t the exact same type of player as Arraez, but he more or less fulfills Arraez’s role of “interesting offensive talent who the Twins can play at second base, but would prefer not to.”

Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? Just sticking him at DH isn’t a satisfactory answer — one of the reasons a healthy Buxton is so valuable is because he has played a transcendent center field when he’s been able to. Playing DH, he’s basically just Jorge Soler, which has value, but not that star-level sizzle.

On the good side, Alex Kirilloff showed a pulse for the first time since his 2021 wrist injury, though ZiPS is taking a conservative road with him (Steamer is more positive). The questions about what kind of player Royce Lewis actually is were answered in a very positive manner in 2023, though it remains to be seen just how healthy he’ll be. And Max Kepler’s power returned last season, though his glove dropped off a bit, cancelling out some of those gains. ZiPS does like Emmanuel Rodriguez quite a bit in the long-term, but not so much in 2024.

There’s no real problem in the ZiPS projections when you look at the team’s starters. If ZiPS is correct, the weak spots (left field, first base, DH) are just bland rather than disastrous. Where it gets a little dicey is when you look past the starters. ZiPS does not think Minnesota has a lot in the way of offensive reinforcements should injuries or a rash of disappointments hit the offense, as happened in 2021 and 2022. Outside of Carlos Correa’s frustrating down season, not a lot actually went wrong for the Twins last year, and they even made another team a smoking crater in the playoffs for once.

Pitchers

Considering that the Twins lost the AL Cy Young runner-up (Sonny Gray) this offseason, the projections in the rotation aren’t bad. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all get above-average projections, and Louie Varland isn’t far behind. Chris Paddack only returned very briefly at the end of the season from Tommy John surgery, but ZiPS liked him before his elbow injury, so having him as the likely fifth starter isn’t a bad situation to be in. Even skipping over ZiPS’ surprising faith in the low-upside Pierson Ohl, David Festa projects as a worthy replacement candidate when one is needed; Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick also project as mostly usable. ZiPS may not like the offense’s depth, but it’s definitely more positive about the rotation’s.

The bullpen projects as above average, but it’s rather top-heavy in the distribution of performance. Both Jhoan Duran and Brock Stewart get elite projections, and Griffin Jax projects with a 3.79 ERA when forecast only as a reliever; Caleb Thielbar is right there as well. But after that, with the exception of Kody Funderburk — whose name I get wrong in a different way every time I say it — there’s a big drop-off to the rest of the ‘pen. Since it doesn’t look like the Twins plan to do much financially, it might at least pay off for them to get a few third-tier bullpen arms on the cheap to fatten up the relief corps a bit.

Overall, the Twins project somewhere between 85 and 90 wins, depending on how much of the roster is healthy. That may be enough in the AL Central, though ZiPS does like the Guardians quite a bit. With Cleveland possibly being better and the Tigers having some upside, the Twins may have a rougher fight to get into the postseason than 2023’s largely amiable stroll.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

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