12:38pm: Hicks can also earn an additional $2MM of annual incentives based on innings pitched, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Those incentives begin kicking in at the 100-inning mark, she adds.

11:59am: The Giants have agreed to a four-year, $44MM contract with free agent right-hander Jordan Hicks, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Passan adds that the Giants plan to utilize Hicks as a starter rather than a reliever. Hicks is represented by the Ballengee Group.

A move back to the rotation is surprising, but it won’t be an entirely unfamiliar role for the flamethrowing 27-year-old. Hicks worked as a starter in the minors before debuting in the Cardinals’ bullpen during the 2018 season, and St. Louis briefly experimented with a move back to the rotation early in the 2022 campaign. That didn’t pan out — he yielded 16 runs in 24 2/3 innings before moving back to a relief role — but the Giants will try their hand at maximizing Hicks’ explosive arsenal out of their own rotation. The Giants have indeed shown a knack for helping pitchers break out — Kevin Gausman chief among them — and Hicks clearly has the type of raw stuff to intrigue clubs in a larger role.

Few pitchers can rival Hicks in terms of sheer velocity. He’s averaged 100.8 mph on his four-seamer and 100.2 mph on his two-seamer to this point in his career and has topped out at borderline comical 105 mph. The former third-round pick couples that blistering velocity with a slider that sits at 86.5 mph, and he’s thrown very occasional “changeups” in the past (never higher than at a 4%  clip) — sitting 91.8 mph on that pitch overall.

Given the uncommonly young age at which he reached the open market and the overpowering nature of his raw arsenal, Hicks has long felt like a pitcher who’d command substantial interest despite a more modest track record. MLBTR ranked him 21st on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year, $40MM contract from a club believing it could unlock another gear in the righty.

As one might expect for a pitcher with this type of superhuman velocity, durability has been an issue. Hicks has never pitched more than 105 innings between the big leagues and minors combined in any season of his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, had a 60-day IL stint due to inflammation in that same elbow in 2021, and missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to a flexor strain. Hicks returned from that injury in early July and was placed back on the injured list in mid-September due to arm fatigue.

Of course, when he’s healthy and at his best, Hicks can be flat-out overpowering. He sports a career 3.85 ERA, but that’s skewed by 10 ugly innings prior to his UCL tear in 2019 and by his rough work as a starter in 2022. In 2023, Hicks turned in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and a 58.3% ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, who acquired him from St. Louis at the trade deadline in exchange for minor league pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. That ground-ball rate is nothing new; Hicks boasts a sensational 60.4% grounder rate in his career. Unfortunately, last year’s command troubles aren’t new either. He’s issued a free pass to an unsightly 12.8% of his opponents in the Majors.

Given last year’s innings count — and totals of 66 1/3 and 13 frames in the two preceding seasons — it’s difficult to imagine Hicks simply stepping into a rotation and firing off 30-plus starts, even if he’s able to remain healthy. The Giants figure to place him on some kind of innings limit in 2024, whether that means capping him at five innings per start, using him to piggyback with another starter, or simply giving him some occasional spells in the bullpen to keep his arm fresh.

An ideal setting might see Hicks move to the bullpen late in the season right as recent trade acquisition Robbie Ray returns from Tommy John surgery, though a lot needs to go right before that’s a legitimate consideration. If Hicks is able to both remain healthy and pitch effectively as a starter this coming season, the team could give him a larger workload come 2025. At that point, plugging Hicks and Ray into the rotation behind ace Logan Webb could give San Francisco a formidable trio. That’s a major “if,” but the upside is intriguing.

For the time being, Hicks will add another question mark to a rotation that’s teeming with uncertainty behind Webb, a 2023 Cy Young Award finalist. Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched last year, but Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to reach even 100 innings. Manaea has since signed with the Mets in free agency, and Cobb will open the 2024 season on the injured list while he recovers from hip surgery.

Hicks joins veteran swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and young righties Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck as candidates to fill out the rotation behind Webb. Twenty-five-year-old righty Kai-Wei Teng, who walked nearly 14% of his opponents in Triple-A last year, is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is surely viewed as a potential rotation mainstay by Giants brass, but he’s pitched just 19 2/3 innings above A-ball and in all likelihood won’t be an option until the 2025 campaign.

It seems fair to envision the Giants making further additions to their rotation, given all that instability, although with both Cobb and Ray on the mend, there will be veteran reinforcements filtering in as the season wears on. Still, the Giants entered the offseason with question marks on the pitching staff and throughout the lineup, and many of those needs remain unaddressed. Adding a more established arm — be it a mid-tier arm in the Mike Clevinger/Michael Lorenzen/Hyun Jin Ryu vein or a top-tier starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — still seems both prudent and well within the Giants’ budgetary capacity.

As it stands, the Giants’ payroll currently projects to about $167MM, per Roster Resource, while their luxury-tax ledger sits nearly $30MM shy of the $237MM first-tier threshold. San Francisco opened the 2023 season with a $188MM payroll and has previously put forth a $200MM roster in the past, so there ought to be considerable room for further augmentation on the free agent and/or trade markets.