Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s just get going

John Mozeliak: So I should jump the market for Sonny Gray right? Get one starter out of the way, what do I need to offer? 4 years for $90?

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t love this plan, there’s less benefit to ‘jumping’ a market when you’re trying to get more than one person

Ben Clemens: and also, the cardinals should be seeking value if they’re trying to accomplish their stated goals, which are a)keeping payroll constant and b)adding good starting pitching

Ben Clemens: overshooting the market to get your guy works a lot better when you only need one guy

Dylan: I feel as though most of the projections for Sonny Gray have been really light compared to his recent + overall production and what guys have been getting on the market in the past couple seasons.

Guys like Chris Bassitt with considerably less track record are getting 60+ despite being a similar age as Gray, and Gray enters this FA period as one of the top 5-10 pitchers of the 2023 season. Is there a disconnect because of the up-and-down nature of his career? I feel like 100m is a lot more likely than him getting under 70, even at age 34.

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure I agree with the over 100/under 70 thing here but I would be surprised if Gray gets less than 70 for sure

Ben Clemens: I think length will be what holds his deal back from 100, not AAV

Ben Clemens: I agree that his AAV’s are kinda low

Jon: Braves need pitching. The FA pitching options are suspect at best. Thoughts on what they should do?

Ben Clemens: The FA pitching options are great!

Ben Clemens: They should try to sign some of these great #2 starters to pair with Fried and Strider

Ben Clemens: are any of them from Georgia? That’d help

Ben Clemens: Nola’s from the south, close enough perhaps

mac: bellinger feels like the most terrifying fool’s gold free agent in years. how much do you make of his struggles to hit high velo in 2023? against pitches 96mph+, he hit .189 with a .250 xWOBA. petriello mentioned on twitter that other nl central teams had picked up on it by the later part of the season. what % chance is there that whatever team signs him is regretting it by june?

Ben Clemens: I would not sign Bellinger. I thought about having him below all the pitchers in the top 10, since this is a my personal preference list

Ben Clemens: But in the end I think he’s kind of a necessary risk for teams that want to add an impact position player

Ben Clemens: I think the days of him being an impact bat are probably gone, but a plus hitter with great CF defense at his age is going to draw a lot of dough

Wireless Joe Jackson: Bellinger seems like the most polarizing FA this year. What kind of deal would you personally be comfortable giving him? He seems ripe for one of the fancy schmancy ones with both team and player options.

Ben Clemens: I mean I just wouldn’t sign him, I’m lower on him than the high bidder is bound to be

Ben Clemens: but yeah, I think one of those transformer type deals is how I’d approach it. I love those Wacha/Martinez Padres deals, even if they ended up just being short deals instead of fancy ones

M’s Fan: I’ve seen some rumors about the M’s signing an upper tier starter and trading a young controllable pitcher for hitting? Does this make sense? Snell, Montgomery, Nola make sense in this instance?

Ben Clemens: I’d be surprised if they did that given how they’ve handled payroll in recent years, to be honest.

Ben Clemens: But if they were going to do it, this is the year. I feel like there was consistent smoke around them trading a starter at the deadline and it didn’t make sense to me for two reasons: 1)they value those starters quite highly and 2)how would they improve their team while trading away a good player?

Ben Clemens: At least the second problem is solved by us now being in the offseason where you can sign more guys, but I think 1) is still a pretty fundamental reason this won’t work

Ben Clemens: I went on one of my favorite radio shows (Bernie Miklasz’s) to talk Cardinals, and we were talking about what it would cost to bring, say, Logan Gilbert to St. Louis. I think the Mariners would ask for Jordan Walker plus multiple other pieces

Ben Clemens: And the Cardinals almost certainly wouldn’t do that

Ben Clemens: Likewise, the Cardinals talk a big game about trading for controllable pitching, but unless they’re trading Walker, I have bad news: you’re not going to get your next ace for Dylan Carlson and a few prospect throw ins

Guest: Why do you hate my favorite team player

Ben Clemens: See, it’s actually a personal thing with you, Guest. I just pick on the player to get to you

Wireless Joe Jackson: Whither the Orioles? If there was ever a time for them to spend money on starting pitching, this sure seems like it. But they’re SO CHEAP.

Ben Clemens: I’m pretty furstrated with them

Ben Clemens: There’s really no other way to say it

Ben Clemens: Elias made it sound like they’re not even going to engage with the top tier of the pitching market

Ben Clemens: At that point, you better have some exciting contract extensions in the pipeline

Ben Clemens: Because this whole ‘don’t get Adley Rutschman enough help for half of the years he’s an Oriole’ deal is awful

BresslyJo: What sort of overpay does a last place team such as the Red Sox need to do to get anybody?

Ben Clemens: They probably don’t need to overpay, unless I’m misunderstanding what you mean

Ben Clemens: people like playing in Boston, money can be exchanged for goods and services, seems pretty straightforward to me

Guest: are we flirting

Ben Clemens:

Kevin: Very glad to have you chatting again! That’s all . . .

Ben Clemens: With the playoffs and their strange time commitments over, I’m going to be back to a regular Monday schedule quite soon

bosoxforlife: Would you touch Lucas Giolito with a 60’6″ pole?

Ben Clemens: so…. I would

Ben Clemens: But if I were making decisions for a team, I’d be asking my analysts to talk me out of it

Ben Clemens: I’m pretty sure I like Giolito more than consensus, and so I’d be trying to get someone to show me the light. I do think that Giolito is the kind of guy teams that need a lot of pitching help should be targeting

Ben Clemens: he’s in the bargain tier, relatively speaking, and i’d be in for bulk innings with the option at him turning back into his 2020-21 form with a change of scenery

Ben Clemens: I mean, not like he’s short on changes of scenery in the last year, but post-trade performance is always weird

Tyler: With like $50 million committed to 2024, if the Reds don’t sign at least one #2ish starter and 2-3 impact relievers, fans should storm GABP, right? I’m thinking Rodriguez, Lopez, Suter

Ben Clemens: 100%

Ben Clemens: This is another deal like hte Orioles

Ben Clemens: You saved a ton of money, tore down, got all these great exciting young hitters

Ben Clemens: Great!

Ben Clemens: Now turn those savings into current-day purchasing power and build a good team around your good players

Scotty H: Tim Anderson becoming a Marlin seems like the most obvious thing to happen this offseason… unless the new Rays’ guy in charge is going to drastically change their FA signing.

Ben Clemens: I could not agree more

bosoxforlife: The Cardinals have succeeded in destroying the value of all their young outfielders. Dombrowski has it right. Trade the prospects before they are exposed as Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech.

Ben Clemens: Dave Dombrowski is a criminally underrated GM/executive

Ben Clemens: he does a really good job understanding when to prey on mystery box thinking

Ben Clemens: there could be anything in the box!

robert nutting: Lots of discussion out there that the pirates are looking to upgrade 1B. What does this actually look like? To me, a hoskins type doesn’t seem to be the best use of money, especially given needs in the rotation

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t think the Pirates will be in on Hoskins, or anyone in that tier with Gurriel/Hernandez/Garver/so on

Ben Clemens: I think it might look like the guys who didn’t make the list, Joey Gallo or a Carlos Santana reunion

Ben Clemens: Gallo isn’t exactly a 1b but if you squint maybe?

Adam: Ohtani destination, NL West or the field, which side you got?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take NL West, b/c I think SF is definitely in the mix and the Dodgers are rightful favorites

Guest: Speaking of cheap teams looking for starting pitching, the Pirates are pretty openly looking for starters. Which pitchers in the Top 50 would you think are most likely to see less interest than expected and take a cheap 1-year deal?

Ben Clemens: Well, if I knew, it wouldn’t be less than expected, but I do think that there’s merit in taking a Brewers-esque see where the offseason takes you path

Ben Clemens: I like it when the Brewers do that, it’s given them some solid bargains, which is really necessary when you’re trying to work on a budget. Pittsburgh should just take a page from that playbook and do a lot of early-stage due diligence on guys so that when people stick around, they already know if they’re interested

Eric: Do you think the Cubs focus their attention more on starting pitching (Nola/Snell/Stroman reunion) or solidifying the corner infield spots with guys like Chapman and/or Hoskins? Or just say screw it, give us Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think they should say screw it give us Ohtani if they can

Ben Clemens: After that, I’d pivot to pitching if I were them, but to be honest I haven’t given this a ton of thought so I’m just working off the cuff here

RobertoBeers: Adalberto Mondesi. I pinged you and Szym about what shenanigans could bring him on board for a longer term contract than one would expect with his recent history. He’s just 28 after all. There is a world where he wins a GG with league average offense en-route to ~4war.

Ben Clemens: I mean there is, but that world is not particularly likely. Realistically, the way teams handle this is a one-year prove it deal. It’d be cool to sign some really gadgety contract with incentives and team options with no buyouts or something like that, but it’s just not gonna happen

Tyler: Any chance San Diego trades go beyond Soto? I don’t’ know enough about baseball finances to judge how dire the situation is, but is a contract like Musgrove’s available?

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t know. They’re telegraphing just Soto, I think, but Preller is not known for being predictable

Dave: What is the crowdsource estimate that surprised you the most? Any players have your opinion shifted by their crowdsource estimates?

Ben Clemens: I was really surprised by how close the crowd and I were on these projections

Ben Clemens: For a quick look inside the process, I make my projections in a two-ish stage process

Ben Clemens: First, I formulaically produce estimates for how much money teams will spend based on a sliding-scale WAR valuation (first win is cheaper, basically), past spending comparisons, inflation, big macro factors like that

Ben Clemens: Separately, I go project every contract without using that framework

Ben Clemens: Then I kind of massage the two together, but there’s a forcing function in there, so my total outlay ends up fitting macro trends

Ben Clemens: That keeps me from losing the plot and “liking” five guys in a row to the point where i project a ton more money spent than teams actually tend to spend

Ben Clemens: So anyway, I do a few rounds of all of that and come up with estimates, and that’s before the crowdsourcing

Ben Clemens: I looked at the crowd numbers yday (or maybe two days ago? it’s fuzzy) and was like wow, we’re really close

Ben Clemens: broadly speaking, I projected more spending than the crowd, both in AAV and total dollar outlay terms

Ben Clemens: I think I’ll be right; like, the free agent class is shallow this year, but that factored into my methodology. The crowd’s total projected spend is just too low imo

Sanford: Where would you have ranked Craig Counsell’s managerial services in the top 50?

Ben Clemens: Haha hmmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: I think I’d rather add counsell to my team than Wacha, so at least in the top 25

Adam: How many of the Other 49 sign before Ohtani does? Will he be the first big domino?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll be the first big domino, but honestly the market is stacking up to have him not be a huge sticking point if his negotiation goes late. I think that a team signing Ohtani could still be in on pretty much anyone else b/c no one else is getting 200 mill plus except maybe Yamamoto

Ben Clemens: that said, some of these DH-only bats are not getting an offer from the Dodgers/Cubs/etc. while Ohtani is still in play

Tiger Fan: I won’t pretend we’re a good team. Probably around 76 wins without ERod now. But could Detroit realistically get one of the tier 1 pitchers (Yamamoto/Nola/Gray/Montgomery) or will the sheer lack of high end talent mean they get picked off by big market teams spending silly?

Ben Clemens: Nah, I think that if the Tigers are looking for a top end starter, they won’t have to go over the moon to get one. If there’s one place to be patient in this market, it’s with the clump of pitchers behind Yamamoto

Ben Clemens: (I think he’s clearly Tier 1 on his own)

Guest: Dave Dombrowski can convince owners to spend money, the single most important skill for an executive to have. Easy HoF GM

Ben Clemens: Another great point. Basically he’s really good at all kinds of these things that don’t feel “innovative”

Ben Clemens: but are really important

Ben Clemens: these days you can hire a lot of analysts to measure how much everyone’s breaking ball breaks

Dan: Is Harper more valuable as a first basemen or is this just injure avoidance?

Ben Clemens: In my opinion, it’s a combination of injury avoidance and some pre-planning for the future

Ben Clemens: the move was coming eventually, you can’t have a guy with Harper’s overall aggression charging around the outfield into his mid-30’s

S_McAnderson: Which pitcher do you predict to get the most team friendly contract and why is it Nick Martinez?

Ben Clemens: I actually think it’ll be Wade Miley

Ben Clemens: But Martinez is a decent call too

Ben Clemens: I’m really curious what role he ends up in

Sanford: Would a (healthy) Ohtani / Yamamoto / Senga / Imanaga / Maeda rotation be the best in baseball? Mets only need to sign 4 of them to make it happen

Ben Clemens: Hmmmm…. you know, I think it might be?

Ben Clemens: obviously tons of uncertainty

Ben Clemens: but that’s just a really deep rotation

Dan: How many players would the Mets signed if Steve Cohen decided to sign everyone who would improve their team by starting the majority of the games are their natural position?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmmm… I think it’d be Bellinger, Chapman, and like four pitchers?

Ben Clemens: sorry the site’s down right now somehow

Ben Clemens: so a)thanks for chatting with me anyway

Ben Clemens: but b)I couldn’t actually go through their depth chart player by player

Steve O: Does Carlos Rodon bounce back next year? I still can’t believe how awful he was after being so dominant for two seasons.

Ben Clemens: I’ve been wondering about this a lot

Ben Clemens: I would say yes. This year was so weird that I struggle to project off of it

Adam: Rank in order of likelihood: Alonso extension, Alonso trade, Alonso plays it out and becomes a FA

Ben Clemens: I would go extension, FA, trade

Ben Clemens: a trade isn’t impossible, but the market for rhh power bats in trade has just been miserable recently

Ben Clemens: for the team doing the trading away, to be clear

Ben Clemens: if you want to acquire cheap righty power at the deadline, it’s been shockingly easy

Lee: Do the Angels trade Mike Trout? I’m sure he likes playing there but they are probably a few years away from really competing and does Trout want to waste more of his prime years without playing meaningful baseball in October.

Ben Clemens: I think it comes down 100% to what Trout wants, to be honest

Ben Clemens: if he says trade me, they probably have to

Ben Clemens: if he wants to stay, he’s staying

Ben Clemens: so I’m not sure the team’s preferencdes matter much here

Ben Clemens: Okay site’s back up, so to finish a Mets question, they’d also need one more OF, so I guess GUrriel

Appa Yip Yip: Would you trust Alek Manoah with a rotation spot, or should the Jays sign a starter and put Manoah in AAA to earn his way back?

Ben Clemens: Might be a spot for Nick Martinez, or somebody of that general skillset. Manaea?

Ben Clemens: I’d probably start him in Triple-A but make it really clear to everyone that if he is pitching well, he will be in the major league rotation sooner rather than later

Ben Clemens: so I’d build my roster with that in mind

Dan: I used to play a game call can I turn the Orioles into playoff favorites with just a checkbook. Since the Orioles have made that game boring I’ve switched to the Rockies. I see 42 war available from the best 7 hitters, best 5 starters, and 7 best relievers. That plus their existing guys as bench plus starting corner outfield and middle infield and it doesn’t actually feel like a playoff team.

Ben Clemens: Since I’m taking Dan’s normal chat spot, I obviously have to mention the Rockies

Nate: What do the Giants do this winter, realistically? Like, am I too optimistic to believe they could actually land Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: With the caveat that only one team is going to land Ohtani, and that I don’t think any team is 50% likely to

Ben Clemens: for sure you’re being realistic

Ben Clemens: The Giants are gonna try really hard to get him

Ben Clemens: I don’t think money is gonna be the holdup here, it wasn’t with Judge or Correa

Tom: What happens in SF if the Giants can’t land a big name for what feels like the fifth year in a row?

Ben Clemens: The mood here is pretty grim

Ben Clemens: Gabe Kapler was a really popular manager among SF fans who I know. to be fair, that group skews towards younger and more recently moved here fans

Ben Clemens: Crawford is beloved by everybody

Ben Clemens: this team keeps getting rid of likeable people, there better be some payoff or I think this could end in Zaidi losing his job by end of 2024

Dan: The saying is you can never have enough pitching but at some point good pitchers stop taking your call since they don’t want to be the 5 or 6th best pitcher on a team, is this a fair take?

Ben Clemens: It is, but only kinda

Ben Clemens: Like, Shota Imanaga is not signing with you if you’re not sure if he’ll start

Ben Clemens: but Wade Miley might

Zach: Is the relative weakness of this (non-Ohtani) class mostly coincidence, or more because the best young players in baseball are more frequently signing contract extensions, leaving free agency to the 30+ set and the occasional Boras client?

Ben Clemens: these are the two contributing factors. I think it’s more coincidence, just look at last year’s class, but I do think that free agency is tending less star-studded over time because of extensions

Izzy: I’d love it if the Cubs went after Giolito. You need 9-10 starters to get through a season, surely he’s good enough to be one of them… as long as you treat him as a depth piece and not a guy you’re trusting in the playoffs.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think that makes good sense. I think a lot of teams with these big pitching needs should be in on Giolito for that exact thought process

Ben Clemens: If he looks a lot better this year, amazing

Ben Clemens: he’s in your playoff rotation

Ben Clemens: if he is just an innings eater, hey that’s life

Hunter: Is Detroit a possible spot for Chapman or would it require too much of an overpay?

Ben Clemens: I suppose it is, and I dunno if Chapman wants to play in Detroit but if he does, why would it require an overpay?

Ben Clemens: Sorry, had to run off for a sec but I’m back

Hunter: I guess I thought it may require an overpay since they are less obvious contenders than some of his other prospective suitors

Ben Clemens: Yeah, this brings up something I’ve always wondered

Ben Clemens: How come we don’t get to see the free agency process from a player side

Ben Clemens: I’d be really interested to hear a mid-tier free agent, or upper tier but not one of the best 5 or so, break down how they make their decisions

Ben Clemens: is it always the highest contract?

Ben Clemens: Are they doing vibes meetings with managers and teammates?

Ben Clemens: DO they research the towns where they might live?

Ben Clemens: Mannnnn I really want to know this

Appa Yip Yip: Would you rather sign Matt Chapman, or split the money and instead go with like, Candelario and Lee Jung-hoo, or comparable players?

Ben Clemens: I think that Eric made a really good point about Lee in his writeup

Ben Clemens: If you’re signing him, you have to treat it as a multi-year investment

Ben Clemens: like if I told you you’d get exactly Ha-Seong Kim’s results

Ben Clemens: You’d be quite happy

Ben Clemens: but he didn’t adapt seamlessly by any means

Walewander: Ben, free agent players are mostly concerned with local school district quality

Ben Clemens: I know you’re joking, but I want to know HOW MUCH they care about that

Ben Clemens: it’s surely not actual zero

Adam: Severino seems like a perfect Twin fit with the slider .. does 1/12 mil work ??

Ben Clemens: I mean, I projected him for that, so I’d say yes

Ben Clemens: but I also think you might see like 1/8 plus a bunch of incentives with a second-year option and a buyout, or something

Steve O: Do the Yankees and Cardinals match up on a Brendan Donovan trade? Is Clarke Schmidt and a mid tier pitcher (Greg Weissert?) fair or would the Yankees have to kick in more? I could see the Cardinals keeping him but they have no pitching and I think the market gets a bit crazy..

Ben Clemens: If that’s how the Cardinals end up filling a pitching vacancy, there are going to be some unhappy Cardinals fans

Ben Clemens: maybe if the Cards sign two good starters and can’t find a third?

Ben Clemens: But I think that the overall return you’re talking about is definitely in the ballpark

Ben Clemens: I do not think the Yankees would have to kick in more

Dan: Do most children of major leagues go to public schools? Do most families of major leagues live in the same city as the stadium? If your living an hour or two out (only commuting 81 times a year to that location) there surely is a good school system near every stadium.

Ben Clemens: I assume they don’t, so yeah, maybe quality of private schools? maybe whether they have friends in the area for the kids? I dunno

Ben Clemens: I want to know these things!

Captain ACAB: What would you do to make the salary structure more “fair” so that young players get paid more for their most productive seasons and not wait until they are “overpaid veterans” in free agency?

Ben Clemens: if I could take over the game? I’d institute some kind of restricted free agency and shorten time to free agency

Nate: When Alex Gordon was a free agent (before he ultimately re-signed with the Cubs), I remember him telling Nebraska newspapers that location and cost-of-living trumped anything else, including winning. He willingly took less with KC because he comfortable and his money went further.

Captain ACAB: Mike Hampton family said he signed with the Rockies because of the schools. https://www.sportscasting.com/mike-hamptons-121-million-pitching-contr…

Appa Yip Yip: Guys who are married with kids are absolutely listening to their wives and honestly maybe even the kids depending how old they are

Ben Clemens: I mean, they obviously should be!

Ben Clemens: But I just want to hear the stories. Player’s Tribune, this would be right up your alley

Marcos: Better animation reference: Money can be exchanged for goods and services, or there could be anything in the box?

Ben Clemens: i like the Simpsons more so I have to go with that one

Ben Clemens: they are two all-timers though

Mike: Seems like the more likely way the Cards go about pitching is getting someone more like Sonny Gray (less year and total dollars than Nola/Yamamoto/Snell), a mid tier like Lugo/Maeda, a low end trade of Carlson/Burleson for someone like Clarke Schmidt, and a flyer on someone like Erick Fedde?

Ben Clemens: So I think you’re right

Ben Clemens: and I think that is not really enough

Ben Clemens: their pitching is BAD

Ben Clemens: I think that’s a hard bind to get out of by signing a bunch of people who aren’t great

Ben Clemens: Gray does make sense to me, but if you get him and he’s your ace, and then your number two is below average for a number two, there are just deficits all the way down

Nate: Gordon re-signed with the Royals, not Cubs. D’oh!

Ben Clemens: I figured that’s what you meant and just let it go

Appa Yip Yip: Is Matt Chapman going to be a trap contract? The bad months were grim and hitting the ball hard doesn’t help if you don’t hit the ball often.

Ben Clemens: I think that he’s going to be a deal where the contract feels worse than it is

Ben Clemens: the bad Chapman months are SO BAD

Ben Clemens: and a lot of his value comes in a way where we underrate it at the time and notice it later (defense)

Ben Clemens: like in almost every outcome, the Chapman deal will feel worse to fans of the team than to executives of the team. Even the good outcomes

Ben Clemens: if fans think Chapman returned roughly his contract value, the odds are high that he returned more

TBone: What is your funniest Fa outcome?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, I’d say Ohtani to the Rays

Ben Clemens: failing that, what if every fast player got signed by the new Ron Washington Angels and he’s just starting a track meet every game

Captain ACAB: I’m guessing you hate this question and get it a lot, but who is the 51st ranked free agent?

Ben Clemens: Oh nope, ez

Ben Clemens: Hyun Jin Ryu

Ben Clemens: I wrote up a caption for him and everything in case we had just one more gap in the list

Ben Clemens: (a bunch of guys were on there and then removed b/c of injury or extension)

Ben Clemens: Bonus content for you content hounds

Ben Clemens: Ryu was added to this list after a number of players fell off of it due to injury or contract options. I don’t have a good handle on his market. But I do think that someone will kick the tires on Ryu and see if some of his mid-career effectiveness will return as he continues his recovery from an injury that cost him more than a year’s worth of starts. His stuff was clearly below major league average when he pitched in the second half of 2023, but that hasn’t stopped him in the past. Both of our pitching models thought his fastball was borderline unplayable in 2020 and 2021, when he compiled a 3.89 ERA across 236 innings of work.

That’s how Ryu has always worked – craftily, and at the margins of the zone. It’s reasonable to think that his style might be more affected by rust than your average pitcher; his greatest skill has always been command, and he didn’t look particularly sharp upon his return. Maybe that’s the end of the line – sometimes a decline in stuff and command just means you don’t have it anymore

Farhandrew Zaidman: Dodgers have holes at DH, Corner OF, and 2B. Mookie obviously fills one of those holes (of half of two). Question: do you see them targeting infield talent or outfield talent to fill the other gap(s)?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re gonna leave DH open for Ohtani until he signs, and then if that happens, just get a stopgap at 2b/rf based on market conditions

Ben Clemens: the long-term goal is to have Michael Busch or Miguel Vargas fill that hole, I’m sure

Not Jerry D: Speaking of what influences free agent decisions, Ohtani doesn’t seem to care about winning (he picked the angels) or money (timing of when he came over). What should my pitch be?

Ben Clemens: He definitely cares about winning, though I’ll admit that maybe he didn’t when he came over

Ben Clemens: He gave a whole interview at the All Star game, when he could have not, with the express purpose of getting the word out there that he cares about winning

Ben Clemens: and I think that playing on the Angels, losing for the first time, is a good way to start caring more about winning

Ben Clemens: I think that he cares about a legacy, and comfort

Ben Clemens: so you sell him on how he’s going to be part of a team that everyone remembers forever, and that it’ll be his team

Appa Yip Yip: When Gausman signed with the Jays he specifically mentioned that the team had someone whose whole job was helping families with the transition and that helped him and his wife feel comfortable with the move. But also 110 millions dollars so who is to say.

Ben Clemens: Right, in retrospect it’s easy to say that

Ben Clemens: once you’ve taken the money, the other stuff starts sounding better

JaysFan: Yimi Garcia for Tyler O’Neill, who says no? Jays shed 6 million and get a LFer

Ben Clemens: I think the Cardinals would say no

Ben Clemens: it’s not much of a money difference, really

Ben Clemens: O’Neill made 5 mil in arb last year

Ben Clemens: but the Cardinals probably don’t want to move people for non-starters given the hole in their rotation

Ben Clemens: getting the Maple Masher to the Jays would be great, though, I agree

Texas Man: Even though he’s not a good catcher, Garver can catch and he rakes. I’d imagine a lot of teams wouldn’t mind having their backup catcher as a regular DH for added overall roster flexibility. I was surprised to see him not projected to make more.

Ben Clemens: I mean, time will tell obviously

Ben Clemens: He’s one where I was surprised that I seem to be the high guesser on him across multiple publications, I thought I’d be mid range

Ben Clemens: I think that you’d need to plan on having a decent Triple-A fill in for catcher as well if you wanted that plan, though

Ben Clemens: Like, a shuttle type guy

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure that you can count on Garver as your only available backup if he’s also DH’ing every day, though he could MOSTLY do it for sure

Ben Clemens: That said, not a hard lift. There are tons of backup catchers in the world

Tomdric: Among the top 50 free agents, which players would surprise you the least to see getting a contract significantly larger/smaller than your expectation?

Ben Clemens: I mean, the easy answer here is the foreign pros

Ben Clemens: Those are always the hardest projections

Ben Clemens: but I’m also gonna add Adam Duvall and Rhys Hoskins

Ben Clemens: I could see someone being really high on Duvall, remember how exciting it was when he was a CF?

Ben Clemens: and I could see Hoskins’s market just faling apart if his medicals are iffy

Tony: Give a positive prediction for the Padres, please!

Ben Clemens: The Padres are going to be one of the most fun teams in baseball next year regardless of competitiveness

Ben Clemens: Also, they’ll end up with some mid-level pitchers who are really interesting. AJ does interesting nwell

Greg: Aside from Ohtani, what’s the one batter Jerry Dipoto should be trying acquire whether that’s a free agent or a realistic trade target?

Ben Clemens: I’d be a fan of them getting Hoskins

Hank: Tyler Oneil prompted something funny. He could obviously surpass it, but how many guys are out there with a 5+ WAR season and a sub-10 career WAR over a bunch of seasons? Wild arc

Ben Clemens: Truly a crazy career

Ben Clemens: Also the only player who has led to me having a picture not approved to post in an article

Ben Clemens: It wasn’t because of content, to be fair

Ben Clemens: It’s because I screencapped it from some random broadcast and we actually do license images

Ben Clemens: but it was of the team ripping his shirt to shreds in a celebration, so I like to think I got censored

Adam: Is a 1 for 1 – Jorge Polanco for Bryan Woo, close to equal value?

Ben Clemens: I’d take Woo by a fair amount there

Dante: If a team doesn’t have many (or any) scouting resources in Asia, are they ever in the mix for top guys like Yamamoto? Seems like you wouldn’t need live looks to know if you want him. Obviously it would hurt them on the non-elite guys. I guess they can send a crosschecker or someone over there if they are serious about a guy?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t think it matters that much for a guy like Yamamoto, because it’s easy to send a cross-checker like you said

Ben Clemens: and i mean, there’s all kinds of great pitch-level data for him as well, NPB is near MLB-quality in data stuff, I watched a TON of video of Yamamoto courtesy of Eric, saw him pitch in the WBC, etc.

Ben Clemens: I totally agree with you that it hurts more on the non-top-of-scale guys

Ben Clemens: Alright, this has been a wonderful chat, but I have to get moving so that I can get breakfast and then go on Effectively Wild to talk about the same thing more

Ben Clemens: Have a wonderful day everyone, and thanks so much for your interest in this exercise