With hopes of a Ukrainian victory fading, Antti Hakkanenn foresees a long face-off against Moscow

The West does not have enough ammunition to prop up Kiev’s forces indefinitely, and without a serious boost in production, the conflict in Ukraine will likely simmer down to “some kind of a new Cold War,” Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanenn has warned.

Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive ended in disaster, with Kiev failing to recapture almost all of its lost territory and losing 160,000 troops in the process, according to figures from the Russian Defense Ministry. With new recruits and ammunition in short supply, Kiev’s European backers have failed to meet their own ammo pledge, while additional military aid from Washington remains stalled by partisan gridlock.

“I think many Western countries were thinking that this was a short-term” problem, Hakkanen said earlier this week, according to Politico. “Many are overestimating that the West is winning this, that Ukraine is winning.”

“Russia has the capability and the ability to go on with this war for years,” he continued, referring to Moscow’s ability to manufacture arms and sign up fresh recruits. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, Russian factories are now producing 17.5 times more artillery shells than they were at the start of the conflict.

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“Now I think that in the US and in NATO countries, almost everyone knows that this is the end of the last 30 years [since the fall of the Soviet Union],” he said. “Now we’re going into some kind of a new Cold War.”

Other Western officials are turning equally pessimistic, with Czech President Petr Pavel stating earlier this week that 2024 will bring “some significant developments” in the conflict. “The indications so far are that it will not be, in the best sense of the word, as we would like it to be,” Pavel added.

“We have to be prepared for bad news. Wars move in phases, but we must stand by Ukraine in good and in bad times alike,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this month, adding that “ramping up [ammunition] production is of decisive importance.”

The Finnish government announced last month that it would double the production of artillery shells for Ukraine, without revealing exactly how many would be made and by when.

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Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky insists that he will not enter peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that his forces will recapture the lost territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, as well as Crimea. However, his top general, Valery Zaluzhny, considers the conflict to be an unwinnable “stalemate,” while Zelensky’s aides reportedly view the president’s belief in a military victory as “delusional.”

The Kremlin maintains that it is open to peace talks with Kiev, as long as the Ukrainian side accepts that its lost regions are now Russian territory. Putin reiterated last week that Moscow seeks the “de-Nazification and demilitarization of Ukraine” as well as “neutral status” for the country, and will not stop its military operation until these goals are achieved.